Bitcoin’s Technical Indicators Flashing Warning Signs

The year 2025 starts on uncertain grounds for bitcoin. After reaching a peak of $108,000, the crypto quickly lost ground and fell back below the symbolic threshold of $100,000. This level, both psychological and strategic, has become a fragile equilibrium point where buyers and sellers confront each other. On one hand, optimists believe that this phase of consolidation paves the way for a new bullish impulse, with a potential recovery towards record levels. On the other hand, proponents of a bearish scenario anticipate a more pronounced correction, which could bring BTC down towards $76,000, a level that corresponds to a key support zone. Beyond these contrasting forecasts, several factors fuel the uncertainty. Moreover, macroeconomic tensions, particularly upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), add additional pressure on investors. In the face of this uncertain climate, the coming weeks are crucial for bitcoin. The outcome of this battle at $100,000 could well dictate the market trend for the rest of the year.

Bitcoin at a Decisive Threshold

The bitcoin finds itself at a strategic crossroads, where the $100,000 mark acts as a major test for market dynamics. This key level, both psychological and technical, concentrates significant liquidity, making price movements particularly unstable. According to CoinGlass, this accumulation of positions could lead to a short squeeze, triggering a sharp movement in prices. “A lot of liquidity at $100,000,” indicates the analysis platform. It thus highlights the importance of this threshold in the current battle between buyers and sellers.

Technical signals reinforce this uncertainty. For some observers, this level is a decisive pivot for the continuation of the bullish trend. SuperBro, in a post on January 6, 2025, on X (formerly Twitter), reminds that bitcoin is approaching its 10-week moving average, an indicator that has often preceded marked increases in the past. Conversely, Keith Alan, co-founder of Monitoring Resource Material Indicators, is more cautious. He warns that if BTC were to fall below its 21-day moving average, a corrective movement could be triggered, bringing the price back to $76,000, a key support zone.

In this technical battle, some experts believe that bitcoin’s bullish potential remains intact. Aksel Kibar, a market analyst at Tech Charts, mentions the formation of a cup & handle pattern, a chart figure that generally signals an impending bullish acceleration. “The long-term BTC/USD price chart with a cup & handle setup indicates a price target (conservative measure) of $137,000,” he specifies in a post on January 6, 2025, on X.

The market thus oscillates between hope for a new bullish impulse and the risk of a deep correction. Furthermore, the ability of buyers to maintain BTC above critical levels will determine whether the optimistic scenario prevails or if the market initiates a more marked retreat.

A Macroeconomic Context that Obscures the Outlook

If technical factors directly influence the price of bitcoin, the macroeconomic context also plays a key role in market evolution. Expectations regarding a reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve have gradually eroded, altering investor anticipations. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 0.25 % decrease at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has dropped to 9.1 %, a level well below market expectations. This situation reinforces the risk of stagflation, a feared phenomenon where economic growth slows while inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously.

Despite this monetary tightening, some indicators suggest a possible change in direction. US bank reserves have fallen by $326 billion and are at their lowest level since October 2020. This massive decrease raises questions about the banking system’s ability to absorb such a shock. Some observers see this as a precursor signal for a loosening of liquidity policies, which could prompt the Fed to slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Should this scenario materialize, an influx of capital into financial markets could reignite demand for risk assets, including bitcoin.

In this uncertain environment, retail investors seem to have taken a step back. According to CryptoQuant, retail transaction variation has dropped by 16% in recent weeks. Historically, such a decline often coincides with attractive entry points for institutional investors, who take advantage of these periods of disengagement from the general public to strengthen their positions. The evolution of this dynamic could play a crucial role in the next market phase of bitcoin.

The coming days are pivotal for bitcoin’s evolution. Indeed, the $100,000 threshold remains a tipping point, the outcome of which could define the market trajectory for the coming months. If buyers manage to defend this level and reignite the bullish momentum, some technical models, like the cup & handle formation, suggest a potential rise towards $137,000. Conversely, a break below $96,000 would heighten fears of a deeper correction, possibly returning to $76,000, where a key support zone lies. Amid the accumulation of liquidity in the markets, macroeconomic uncertainties, and analytical divergences, the year 2025 could be one of the most volatile in bitcoin’s history. The market’s ability to absorb external shocks and maintain robust buying pressure will be critical for the continuation of the bullish cycle.