Bitcoin’s Low Volatility: A Warning or a Market Shift?

Bitcoin is operating in a nearly critical equilibrium zone. Usually subject to marked fluctuations, the asset has recorded historically low implied volatility in recent days, a situation that intrigues as much as it worries analysts. While markets wait for a strong signal, a well-known figure in the sector, Michael Saylor, suggests a new massive buying movement for his company Strategy. Is the bitcoin market on the brink of an explosive movement? As open interest in BTC futures declines and volatility reaches historical lows, some indicators suggest that a period of high activity could follow.

Lower Volatility : A Market Under Tension

For several days, the implied volatility of bitcoin has been in free fall. According to data from Glassnode, the volatility indicator realized over one week reached 23.42 %, a level rarely seen. “In four years, it has only been lower a few times: in October 2024 (22.88 %) and in November 2023 (21.35%)”, specifies the on-chain analysis. These levels remind us of those that, historically, preceded major price movements.

Such a situation occurs in a context where bitcoin seems stuck in a narrow range, despite events that could potentially influence its price, such as the recent massive hack of Bybit. Yet, even after this attack, bitcoin finished its session in the same price zone where it has been trading for two weeks, highlighting an unusual inertia for the asset.

Michael Saylor and Strategy : A Bullish Signal in Preparation ?

If volatility indicators signal a period of calm, other elements might suggest an imminent resurgence of activity. The CEO of Strategy, Michael Saylor, shared on February 23, 2025, on platform X (formerly Twitter) a chart of the company’s bitcoin holdings, an action often associated with massive acquisitions in the past. “I don’t think it reflects everything I did last week,” he stated, suggesting that additional purchases might be underway.

Meanwhile, a decline in open interest for bitcoin futures has been observed, dropping to its lowest level since February 9. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades specifies on February 22, 2025, on the social network X that “a decrease in open interest combined with a stable price can be a good reset, provided the spot market takes over.” In other words, if bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, a bullish movement could follow if sufficient buying pressure emerges.

Data suggests that the market is in a waiting phase, but historical precedents show that such periods have often been followed by significant price movements. Glassnode reminds us that prolonged drops in implied volatility have, in the past, preceded “major volatility spikes”, even though the direction of the movement remains uncertain. If accumulation continues and institutional buying confirms, bitcoin could trend upward with a potential target around $100,000, as some observers anticipate. Conversely, if the market fails to find sufficient momentum, a correction could be on the agenda.