Bitcoin will crash after the Halving! According to Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes is one of the iconic figures in crypto trading. He recently published an article detailing his predictions for the evolution of Bitcoin and the crypto market in the coming weeks. With rare clarity, he anticipates a turbulent period where assets will collapse before and after the Bitcoin Halving. Here we explore Hayes’s well-crafted strategy for profiting from these unfavorable conditions.

The Collapse of Bitcoin

According to Hayes, the period between April 15th and May 1st is looking particularly precarious for Bitcoin and crypto in general. Indeed, several factors are converging to reduce the liquidity of the US dollar. Among others: the payment of taxes, the continuation of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening, and the increase in the balance of the Treasury General Account. This will lead to a decline in the currency. Added to this is the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20th, the scarcity of liquidity will become increasingly noticeable and will provoke a panic movement among crypto investors. This will cause the price of risky assets to plummet and the Bitcoin price to collapse.

Hayes’s Plan

In light of these prospects, Arthur Hayes is exercising great caution. He has taken profits on several speculative positions in altcoins and has preferred to switch to Ethena USDe stablecoins to earn yield. Then, he will decide to remain exposed to the bull market while refraining from any new transactions until May 1st, reckoning that this transitional period between the end of the BTFP and the slowdown of the QT pace will be favorable. During this period, he can then establish short positions on Bitcoin and crypto assets in general.

Due to a tense liquidity context in the foreign exchange market, Arthur Hayes anticipates a significant correction of cryptocurrencies before and after the Bitcoin halving. Far from blindly betting on a rise, he has chosen a pragmatic strategy. He is slimming down his speculative portfolio to move into a waiting position. This defensive stance will, in his opinion, allow him to re-enter the market in May with fresh ammunition and fully benefit from the next bullish phase.