Bitcoin - Where Does The Downward Pressure Come From?

The decline of Bitcoin seems to be linked to an anticipation of massive sales over the next few months. Really?

Germany Shoots Itself in the Foot Again

The German Federal Criminal Police Office recently transferred to the Coinbase exchange part of the 50,000 bitcoins confiscated in 2013 in a criminal case.

According to Arkham data, the equivalent of nearly 500 million euros have been transferred in several transactions since June 19. These transfers could indicate that the German government plans to liquidate some of its bitcoins.

Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark in anticipation of downward pressure on the price. The German government’s wallet still contains more than 46,000 bitcoins worth nearly 3 billion dollars.

This is not a small amount. Recall that it took nearly 15 billion dollars for US ETFs to push Bitcoin to $70,000.

Speaking of ETFs, note that net cumulative flows have become negative since June 10. In other words, “sophisticated” investors are also wary of the potential summer downward pressure.

The FUD could therefore persist if the German government continues to transfer bitcoins from its wallet to Coinbase.

🚨🚨🚨 German Governments sent additional 750 BTC to exchanges 45 minutes ago:

– 500 BTC To Coinbase
– 125 BTC To Kraken
– 125 BTC To Bitstamp

— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) June 26, 2024

Another FUD of the moment: the old Mt. Gox serpent.

Mt. Gox Pays Up

More than a decade later, the Japanese justice system is about to reimburse Mt. Gox customers who lost nearly 950,000 bitcoins in 2014, worth nearly 570 million dollars at the time.

Only 141,868 bitcoins will soon be returned to nearly 20,000 creditors. That’s the equivalent of 9 billion dollars. It’s more than half of the 15 billion dollars absorbed by ETFs since their launch! However…

The Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings offer creditors three options:

– Receive a payment of about 90% now in bitcoins.
– Potentially wait another 3 to 5 years to receive the full amount.
– Receive their payment in cash without a discount, but with an unknown additional delay…

Galaxy estimates that 75% of the reimbursements will be “in-kind”, meaning directly in bitcoins. So, while the market expects a downward pressure of 141,868 BTC, Galaxy Research predicts the amount will be significantly lower.

Around 65,000 BTC should be delivered to individual creditors. And 30,000 BTC to claim funds and a separate bankruptcy. It can be reasonably assumed that most of the BTC received by the funds that acquired claims from creditors will be distributed in-kind and therefore will not be sold.

Moreover, the 20,000 creditors of the 65,000 BTC pool are early investors who have certainly had time to recover. One can imagine that a large majority of the 20,000 creditors will keep their bitcoins.

These bitcoiners have resisted for more than 10 years to convincing and aggressive offers from debt buyers. This suggests that they want to recover bitcoins, not fiat currency. Not to mention the tax consequences on capital gains that could further discourage any sale…

Bitcoin Miners Secure Their Backs

Miners have sold more than 30,000 BTC since the beginning of June, about 2 billion dollars. It’s the highest amount of the year.

The amount of bitcoins held by miners has fallen to its lowest level in over 14 years according to IntoTheBlock data.

On June 19, miners’ reserves fell to 1.9 million bitcoins. They were at 1.95 million BTC at the beginning of the year.

BREAKING: #Bitcoin miners sold over 30,000 $BTC (~$2 billion) in June, the highest amount this year, dropping reserves to a 14-year low.

The recent #Bitcoin halving cut profits, causing especially smaller miners to sell off #Bitcoin to cover operation costs. pic.twitter.com/rfbeI6Mwih

— Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 (@CarlBMenger) June 24, 2024

It seems that miners have learned from past cycles. The era of over-indebtedness and holding too many bitcoins is over. Many are selling some of their reserves at the peak, as a precaution.

Especially since the halving and increased competition mean that the amount of bitcoins produced per TH decreases, which increases production costs. The hashprice is now at ~0.05 $/TH/Day, approaching its historical low (0.044 $/TH/Day).

We will need to closely monitor miners’ reserves. An increase will coincide with a relaxation of the downward pressure that has been in place since early June.