Bitcoin Warning : CryptoQuant Predicts 24 % Drop By Year-End

As Bitcoin continues to captivate investors worldwide by flirting with new historical highs, an unexpected voice rises to temper the euphoria surrounding the queen of crypto: that of Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, a reference in the sector. In a context where markets are stimulated by prospects of Fed rate cuts and the repercussions of the recent U.S. presidential elections, Ki Young Ju makes a strange and far from optimistic forecast. According to him, Bitcoin could record a drop of nearly 24 % by the end of 2024, with a level around $58,974. This prediction, although at odds with the current enthusiasm, is based on a meticulous analysis of past trends and market data.

A Cautious Forecast in the Face of Market Optimism

Ki Young Ju has surprised market observers and announces on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin could close the year 2024 at a level of $58,974, which would represent a significant drop of 24% compared to recent values of the crypto. “I fear that Bitcoin will end the year well below the expectations of many investors,” he stated. He adds that he hopes to be wrong. This figure marks a clear break from the bullish trend that seemed to be established after Bitcoin surpassed $77,000, a historic level for the crypto. He also reminds investors that even in “halving” years, the month of December has not always been favorable, as indicated by CoinGlass data. Indeed, this data shows that the performance of this month remains difficult to predict.

To justify his forecast, Ki Young Ju relies on historical data and trend analyses, and highlights Bitcoin’s unpredictable nature at year-end. In fact, Bitcoin’s history since 2013 shows marked fluctuations in December, a month where the market can be driven by both bullish dynamics and brutal corrections. This volatility is intensified by the anticipation of a “year-end rally,” often dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally,” which can sometimes precede unexpected and significant declines, thus encouraging investors to be cautious in the face of enthusiasm.

The Weight of Macroeconomic Events and Market Expectations

While this forecast may discourage some investors, the crypto community remains divided and expresses lasting optimism about Bitcoin’s future. Some even anticipate surpassing the six-figure mark by the end of 2024. On social media, comments abound. Investors highlight the opportunity to buy during a potential correction, while others express their confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, despite the cycles and market fluctuations. Bitcoin could still surprise, as the Fed’s interest rate cut announcements and the post-election context in the United States could favor a last-minute rebound.

With a bit of hindsight, investors remind that Bitcoin, despite its volatility, remains influenced by major macroeconomic trends, but also by specific internal factors related to cryptos, such as the “halving” cycle. CoinGlass data shows that the month of December has been, over the last decade, a period marked by uncertainty, with alternation between bullish and bearish months complicating predictions. Thus, this bearish forecast from CryptoQuant may only represent one of many possible paths for Bitcoin, which could just as easily experience an inverse dynamic, fueled by announcements of regulation or institutional adoption.

Ki Young Ju’s forecast reflects the multiple uncertainties surrounding the Bitcoin market and the volatility inherent to this crypto. It reminds investors that, despite the current optimism, caution is still warranted. If Bitcoin proves capable of withstanding external fluctuations and responds positively to market developments, the road toward the end of 2024 remains paved with doubts. Far from being a simple prediction, this analysis opens a broader reflection on the long-term dynamics of Bitcoin and the conditions that could ultimately shape its future.