Bitcoin Veterans Recharge: A Signal Not To Be Ignored

Bitcoin wavers, but does not yield. While traditional markets wobble under the effects of geopolitical tensions and the tariff policies of the Trump administration, a well-known group of crypto observers is springing back into action: long-term holders. These investors, known for their composure, seem to be quietly resuming their purchases. A breath of optimism in a stifling climate.

Subtle signals… but decisive

The Bitcoin news: according to data from CryptoQuant, the “Long-Term Holder Net Position Change” — this indicator that tracks the movements of dormant wallets for more than 155 days — returned to positive territory on April 6. A first in six months. For reference, these investors had massively sold during the crypto winter, reaching a net outflow of 827,750 BTC in December.

The price of bitcoin had fallen by 32% during the same period.

The situation has changed. The LTH (long-term holders) are starting to buy again, and the market has felt it: +12% since that date. As analyst Burak Kesmeci commented on X:

This turnaround could be a signal of a trend change, provided the indicator remains positive with acceleration.

This behavior coincides with another striking figure: 63% of circulating bitcoins have not moved for over a year. A record that illustrates one thing: the conviction of market veterans remains strong despite macroeconomic turbulence.

A still fragile dynamic

But the euphoria is not in order. Although bitcoin has bounced above $83,000, it struggles to regain sustained momentum. Volatility remains high, bullish signals are rare, and caution dominates. Especially since, according to CryptoQuant, BTC remains in one of its least bullish phases since November 2022: out of the 10 indicators tracked by the Bull Score index, only one is still active.

Additionally, the uncertainties related to the trade war: the customs truce declared by Trump – 90 days without additional tax except for China – calmed the markets, but doubt still looms. A new escalation could sweep everything away in its path.

However, not everything is bleak. Analyst Sina believes that “75 to 80% of the correction is already behind us” and mentions a “strongly de-risked Bitcoin“. According to his models, a drop to $70,000 would be the worst-case scenario. This level represents a psychological floor but also an opportunity for the more patient.

The long breath of “HODLers”

In the background, a change in mentality is taking shape. Less short-term speculation, more long-term conviction. As highlighted in a Glassnode analysis, the fact that 63% of the supply is immobile reflects a transformation of the crypto investor: less quick to yield, more attentive to fundamentals.

The market is thus suspended between two forces: a faltering macroeconomy that dampens enthusiasm, and a solid base of investors who refuse to panic. If the two trends balance out, the way could be open for a sustainable restart.

Key points to remember

• The Net Position Change of LTH has been in the green since April 6;
  
• 63% of circulating BTC have not moved in a year;
  
• +12% rebound since the American tariff pause;
  
• Derivatives are in sharp decline, a sign of deleveraging;
  
• The BTC price remains consolidated between $74,000 and $84,000.

The recovery of bitcoin seems to be built on more solid foundations than during previous rebounds. But for this dynamic to become a trend, a catalyst will be needed: a macroeconomic relaxation, an institutional influx, or a disruptive event. For now, a key catalyst is still missing from the call.