Bitcoin This Week: 5 Essential Points And A Risk Of Correction

Bitcoin has rebounded by 20% in just a few days. But behind this spectacle of volatility lurk insidious risks. Between political euphoria, technical anomalies, and conflicting signals, the king of cryptos is navigating a minefield. Here are five key elements to decode this critical phase.

The CME Spread and the Trump Effect: An Explosive Cocktail

The market for CME futures contracts shows a record gap of $85,000, a rare technical anomaly. This gap, comparable to an air pocket in prices, acts as a magnet for the rates.

For legendary analyst Peter Brandt, this historical “hole” could trigger a brutal correction if prices return to fill the void. A perspective that recalls the liquidation cascades of June, when Bitcoin lost 30% in two weeks.

The current rebound coincides with statements from Donald Trump, who mentioned a “strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies” ahead of the first White House summit on the sector.

While this political support has galvanized buyers, some see it as a trap. “The announcements remain vague, and whales could take advantage of the emotion to liquidate their positions,” notes an anonymous trader.

This week crystallizes the risks: speeches from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, and data on American employment will test Bitcoin’s resilience.

A rise in rates or robust economic indicators could strengthen the dollar, asphyxiating risky assets. Timing is crucial: the summit on cryptos could either legitimize the rebound or reveal its artifice.

Conflicting Signals from the Crypto Market: Between Euphoria and Caution

On-chain data shows a clear improvement: the profitability of Bitcoin addresses has surged, and outflows from exchanges suggest a resumption of accumulation.

However, Sentiment, an analysis platform, tempers optimism: “Institutional investors remain on the sidelines. This movement resembles a technical rebound more than a trend reversal.“

Traders are scrutinizing the $90,000-$91,000 range, the former floor of recent months. “If Bitcoin closes below, the drop could be rapid towards $85,000,” warns Daan Crypto Trades.

Mark Cullen adds: “ Liquidity around $95,000 attracts prices, but a return to $85,000 to fill the CME gap would be a heavy blow.” These levels illustrate the precarious balance between buyers and sellers.

The rebound has generated a daily candle of $10,000 in some markets, triggering massive liquidations of short positions. But this enthusiasm masks a reality: volumes remain below those of May, and open interest is stagnant. “Without an influx of fresh capital, this rally lacks fuel,” analyzes a crypto fund manager.

As the eyes turn to the Fed and the White House, Bitcoin embodies more than ever a battle between political narratives and market mechanics. Each announcement, each economic data point, can tilt the balance.

Bitcoin dances on a volcano. Between the CME gap, the Trump effect, and macro indicators, the risks of correction are palpable. Seasoned traders know this: a 20% rebound is not enough to bury a bear market. The $90,000 zone remains key. If it gives way, the drop to $85,000 — or even lower — would become inevitable. In this era of FUD and FOMO, a strategy of caution is essential. Will the king of cryptos survive this ordeal? The answer will come in the coming days. Stay tuned: volatility has not said its last word despite the critical point reached.