Bitcoin Profits Return, Fueling Fresh Speculation Among Holders

Bitcoin, like a financial phoenix, rises from its ashes with startling vigor. Surpassing $94,000 on April 23, the crypto-queen shakes the markets and rekindles hopes for a historic six-figure peak. Behind this ascent, a complex alchemy is at play: long-term holders, new capital inflows, and psychological balances map out a treasure map full of traps. How should we interpret this dance of numbers? Between euphoria and caution, a dive into the depths of a boiling market.

Holders and fresh capital: The explosive cocktail of the Bitcoin rally

After months of lethargy, short-term holders (STH) are smiling again. Their break-even point, set around $91,700, was shattered on April 22, with bitcoin crossing $94,000.

The result: nearly 70% of their portfolios are now in the green. This reversal is no coincidence. Historically, when STHs return to profit, they become less eager to sell, creating leverage on prices. A similar dynamic had preceded the 2021 rally.

In the shadows, long-term holders (LTH) — investors who have held their BTC for more than 155 days — quietly accumulate.

Since February, an additional 363,000 bitcoins have joined their vaults, according to Glassnode. A silo strategy reminiscent of pre-halving behavior, where anticipated scarcity drives accumulation.

Meanwhile, whales and sharks (wallets holding 100 to 10,000 bitcoins) have swallowed the equivalent of 300% of the annual issuance. A voracious appetite that lays the foundations for a structural shortage.

April saw a wave of fresh capital arriving, attracted by promises of a $100,000 peak. These buyers, often institutional, inject liquidity at high price levels, implicitly validating the current valuation. Peer validation works as a virtuous circle: the higher the bitcoin price climbs, the more funds flow in. But this mechanic has its limits…

$97,000: The wall of regrets or a springboard into the unknown?

Just shy of $100,000, a major obstacle is looming: 392,000 BTC would be sleeping in wallets bought around $97,000. For these holders, often trapped during previous peaks, selling “at break-even” would be tempting.

Sales pressure equivalent to nearly $38 billion could thus slow the momentum. Axel Adler Jr., a renowned analyst, sums it up: “$96,100 is the last line of defense for holders of 3 to 6 months. What happens next will depend on their discipline.”

Despite this risk, some traders see further ahead. The Wyckoff reaccumulation model, theorizing phases of consolidation followed by explosions, seems to be replaying. Ezy Bitcoin, an anonymous trader, mentions targets of $131,500, even $166,700.

This scenario assumes large wallets absorb the available supply, turning resistance into a launching pad. A bold bet, but historically credible: in 2017 and 2021, similar patterns preceded gains of over 200%.

For individuals, the temptation to take profits is strong. Yet, on-chain data shows unprecedented resilience: the number of bitcoins in active circulation stagnates, a sign that the majority prefer to hold their tokens. A patience contrasting with past frenzies. Could this be the effect of market maturation before the 100k… or an excess of confidence?