Bitcoin Struggles Below $86,000 While Gold Soars

Bitcoin is taking a pause. While the flagship cryptocurrency struggles to sustainably cross the $86,000 mark, gold, on the other hand, is breaking all records. This Thursday, the yellow metal reached a new historic high of $3,059 per ounce, fueled by a tense macroeconomic context.

Bitcoin: between price stagnation and surge in gold

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) stalls below $86,000 while gold sets a new historic record at $3,059 per ounce. This striking contrast reflects a change in sentiment in the markets: investors are retreating to safe havens as risk assets take a pause. Why? Because of Trump.

Indeed, the United States’ decision to impose a 25% tax on imported vehicles and 100% on Chinese electric vehicles has rekindled fears of a trade war. Meanwhile, the upward revision of the US GDP (3.4% in Q4 2024) and the drop in unemployment claims suggest that the FED might keep interest rates high longer than expected. As a result: investors are abandoning Bitcoin in favor of gold.

$112,000 for BTC? Not so fast… The real test comes in April

While the market capitalization of gold has surged by over $3 trillion in a year, according to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin struggles to continue its rally. Technical analysts, however, see a bullish pattern (pennant) that could propel BTC to $91,000, even $112,000 according to some. But short-term fundamentals could contradict these forecasts.

Moreover, the halving in April 2024 has already halved the mining rewards (3.125 BTC per block). Added to this, the mining difficulty for Bitcoin is expected to jump by 16.05% by April 4, reaching 132.02 TH/s. For many miners, especially the less well-equipped ones, this means profitability is in free fall. Some may be forced to sell their BTC, creating bearish pressure on the market.

Between macroeconomic tensions, soaring gold prices, and increasing pressure on miners, April could mark a critical turning point for Bitcoin. While technical projections remain optimistic, short-term fundamentals remind us that the path to $100,000 will be neither linear… nor guaranteed.