Bitcoin: Short-Term Losses Don’t Scare The Veterans

Bitcoin is currently navigating troubled waters. Below the symbolic $90,000 mark, the landscape is tinged with red for recent holders, while crypto veterans stay the course. Between technical corrections and the quiet accumulation by institutions, the market draws a complex map: one of a fragile balance between latent losses and steadfast confidence. A dive into the intricacies of an asset that refuses to succumb to fatalism, despite the storms.

Analysis of unrealized losses: the mirror of a tense market

The concept of unrealized losses acts as a revealing indicator of underlying tensions. These losses, calculated between the average acquisition price and the current valuation, reflect the market’s psychological state. And this, while Robert Kiyosaki predicts a bitcoin at one million dollars by 2035.

Data from Glassnode shows that short-term holders—those who bought at recent peaks—are stuck in a slump. Their average entry cost often exceeds $80,000, exposing them directly to the current volatility.

Yet, this phase does not resemble historical crashes. Recent corrections, though repeated, lack the brutality of previous cycles. In 2018 or 2021, declines regularly exceeded 50%, sweeping away even the strongest portfolios.

Today, the drawdown remains contained, oscillating around 20%. A resistance that raises questions: is the current market a simple technical pause or the start of a deeper reversal?

Long-term holders, on the other hand, are still breathing easy. Their acquisition cost, often below $30,000, protects them from turbulence. But beware: the gradual erosion of prices could crack their shield.

If bitcoin were to test $60,000, even the toughest would see their gains evaporate. A precarious balance, where every price move resonates like a warning.

Bitcoin resists: profitability persists despite the clouds

Despite appearances, bitcoin has not lost its shine. Nearly 75% of holding addresses still show profits, according to Glassnode. A figure highlighting a reality often overlooked: the majority of investors remain profitable over time. The “HODLers”, those steadfast accumulators over the years, embody this resilience. Their strategy? Ignoring media noise and betting on historical cycles.

Institutions also play the troublemaker. While retail investors panic, BlackRock and others scoop up BTC at discounted prices. Their logic is ruthless: every dip becomes an opportunity.

In April, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $420 million, despite sales by some competitors. A divergence that recalls a golden rule: in the crypto space, the “smart money” buys when others doubt.

Even whales—those holding over 1,000 BTC—refuse to yield. Their network activity, up 18% since January, signals aggressive accumulation. A typical behavior of consolidation phases, where influential actors prepare the ground for the next ascent.

The emblematic block 666,666, recently mined, almost symbolizes this stubbornness: a wink to enthusiasts, convinced that bitcoin transcends cycles.

BTC holders: the great gap between time horizons

Here lies the paradox: bitcoin rewards patience but penalizes recklessness. Newcomers, attracted by promises of quick gains, bear the brunt of adjustments. Their mistake? Underestimating the asset’s structural volatility.

Short-term losses, though painful, fall within historical normality. Since 2010, bitcoin has experienced 15 corrections exceeding 30%… before always reaching new highs.

Experienced holders have understood: time is their ally. By extending their investment horizon, they neutralize shocks. The key? Iron discipline. Selling at lows means crystallizing losses; waiting, despite discomfort, allows capturing major trends. This philosophy explains why 62% of the supply hasn’t moved for more than a year—a record.

Below $90,000, bitcoin embodies a fascinating duality. On one side, latent losses weigh on minds; on the other, an unshakeable faith in its secular trajectory. Data confirms it: past cycles have always seen the asset rise from its ashes. For investors, the lesson is clear: in this dance between fears and opportunities, time remains the best ally. The current bear market may be just a breath— a step towards new summits. And if, in this calm, bitcoin’s dominance dropped to 40%? Such a scenario would likely open a new chapter, potentially favorable to altcoins.