Bitcoin Records an 8% Decrease in Early September: Technical Analysis of September 10, 2024

After recording a decline in August, Bitcoin continues its downward trend at the beginning of September. Let’s analyze together the future prospects of the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Situation

After marking a peak at $65,000, Bitcoin unfortunately failed to continue its rise initiated from $49,000. Indeed, Bitcoin experienced a drop to the support level of $57,700. It then consolidated at this price level before finally giving way and continuing its downward momentum, reaching a new low around $52,600. It is from this price level that BTC has sparked buyer interest, which seemed to have received support this Monday, September 9.

Indeed, at the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price is trading around $56,600. It is interesting to observe that Bitcoin has sparked buyer interest after slightly consolidating around the support level of $54,000 – $55,000, as noted in the analysis of September 3. Although this phenomenon may be encouraging, it should be noted that this increase can be considered a correction, with the short-term trend of the crypto still being revised downward. As for the medium-long term trend, it is observed that it continues to be questioned as Bitcoin evolves below its 50 and 200-day moving averages. Furthermore, it is also below its notable value zones located above its current price. Concerning BTC’s dynamics, it is noted that it has experienced a subtle rebound, as evidenced by its oscillators and its price itself.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, an enthusiastic investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Currently a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content, and support around financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Zoom on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

While all indicators were red, Bitcoin’s rise showed divergent signals. Indeed, it can be observed that the open interest of BTC perpetual contracts has been revised upward, as has its underlying asset. This indicates increasing interest from speculators. In view of the CVD also rising, it can be deduced that this interest was driven by buyers. That said, it should be noted that selling pressure still seems present, with funding rates being negative. On the liquidation side, it is noted that the breach of $55,000 triggered notable seller liquidations, exceeding $21 million. This indicates some capitulation of the selling force on Bitcoin.

The liquidation heatmap of the last three months indicates that BTC/USDT has reached the subtle liquidation zone around $54,500. It appears that the cryptocurrency has sparked buyer interest after reaching this level, subsequently leading to a bullish reaction. Currently, the notable liquidation zones are primarily located above Bitcoin’s current price. We can note the zone between $59,000 and $60,000. Just above, there is a subtle zone, but the most significant are around $65,000 to $67,000, and higher, above $70,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. Therefore, these zones represent major points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

• If the Bitcoin price stays above $53,600, one could anticipate reaching $58,500, or even $59,000. The next resistance to consider would then be around $60,000. If the upward movement continues, one could envision a progression to $65,000, which would represent a nearly 15% increase.

• On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to stay above $53,600, one could envision a return to $52,600. The next support to monitor, if the downward movement continues, would be around $49,200. Lower down, the support is noted at $48,300, which would represent approximately a 14% decrease.

Despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin remains under pressure and struggles to find solid upward momentum. The short-term trend remains bearish, while the medium-long term trend remains uncertain. Although signs of recovery are present, the overall situation remains fragile. Thus, it will be essential to closely monitor the price’s reaction at key levels to validate or revise current forecasts. It is also important to stay vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remind ourselves that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that cryptocurrency prices may quickly evolve based on other more fundamental factors.