Bitcoin ready to bounce back? Analysis from 08 May 2024

After a decline of over 23% from its all-time high (ATH), Bitcoin has rebounded and is once again positioned above $60,000. Let’s analyze the future prospects for the BTC price together.

Current Bitcoin (BTC) Price Situation

After breaking down the $60,000 support, Bitcoin marked a low around $57,000. This level was a bearish target highlighted in the April 27, 2024 analysis. It has garnered buying interest that propelled it above its former short to medium-term support at $60,000. It was at $64,000 that the cryptocurrency price met selling pressure, leading to a period of consolidation in a range below this level. Notably: we can confirm the importance of this level, being a significant value zone.

At the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price is trading around $62,300. Although the underlying trend remains bullish, the rejection of its resistance at the same time as its 50-day moving average continues to cast doubt on the trend’s continuation. In terms of momentum, it has rebounded slightly but remains weak, indicating modest buying interest in the leading cryptocurrency.

The current technical analysis has been carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and trader passionate about the cryptocurrency market. Today, he is a coach at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. You will find Live sessions, educational content, and mutual aid around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

Since mid-April, open interest on BTC/USDT contracts has remained relatively stable. This could demonstrate a balance between buyers and sellers on the Bitcoin perpetual contracts. Regarding liquidations, they have been insignificant. However, it’s noteworthy that the liquidations are predominantly sellers. This could reflect buying interest from investors, but seemingly not strong enough to counterbalance that of the sellers. Lastly, the funding rates associated with BTC/USDT contracts continue to fluctuate between positive and negative, indicating that interest in these contracts is stable, being well aligned with their underlying asset.

The liquidation heatmap for the past month indicates that BTC/USDT has crossed a significant liquidation zone around $65,000. An emerging selling interest at this level suggests a potential downturn. Currently, the cryptocurrency is nearing another significant liquidation zone situated between $62,000 and $60,000. Below, zones around $58,000 and between $57,000 and $56,000 are also critical. Above the current price, zones at $65,500 and, more significantly, at $67,500 are particularly marked. Even higher, the zone around $71,500 deserves special attention. If the market approaches these levels, we may witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These zones represent major points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

• As long as Bitcoin manages to stay above $60,000, we can anticipate the breakout of $64,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be in a price range around $67,000 and $68,000. Even higher, we can note the $71,000 and above. At this stage, this would represent an increase of more than 14.5%.

• If Bitcoin fails to hold above $60,000, we might envisage a renewal of buying interest once again at $57,000. The next level to consider if the bearish movement persists, would be around $54,000. Lower still, we can identify the famous level of $52,000 or even $51,000. At this juncture, this would represent a close to –18% decrease.

Conclusion

Although Bitcoin has experienced rebounds beyond $60,000, persistent resistance and modest buying momentum are keeping its price in a consolidation phase, casting doubt on the continuation of this recent rise. Thus, it will be crucial to closely monitor the price reaction to various key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant for potential “fake outs” and market “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can otherwise move rapidly in response to more fundamental factors.