Bitcoin price, what to expect? Crypto Analysis of February 13, 2024

Bitcoin recorded an increase of over 13% last week and has started a new one by marking a new peak. Let’s examine together the future prospects of the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) Situation

Bitcoin continued its uptrend after briefly moving in a range between $42,000 and $44,000. Indeed, within four days, it reached $48,000. It is important to note that this last price level corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH). On Monday, February 12, BTC continued its upward movement, reaching the psychological threshold of $50,000. Thus, the Bitcoin price has once again positioned itself above its 50-day moving average. From an investor’s point of view, this phenomenon could indicate the continuation of the mother cryptocurrency’s uptrend. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has resumed vigorously, and oscillators have confirmed it. Indeed, they have rebounded above the median threshold and have breached their previous peak, invalidating the previously highlighted bearish divergence in the analysis of January 06, 2023.

The current technical analysis has been conducted in partnership with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. There you will find Live sessions, educational content, and mutual support around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

We can see that the open interest in Bitcoin has increased simultaneously with its price, with a positive funding rate since Wednesday, February 07. Thus, the simultaneous rise of these indicators suggests that traders are overall optimistic about the future of the market. However, it is important to bear in mind that such a situation can paradoxically indicate an excess of optimism, pushing the price of Bitcoin to unsustainable levels in the short term and thereby increasing the risk of a correction. Regarding liquidations, it is noteworthy that the breakthrough beyond $49,000 led to several forced liquidations of short positions. This shows selling pressure that is forced to capitulate, thus supporting Bitcoin’s upward trend.

The heatmap of liquidations for BTC/USD shows that the liquidation barrier around $44,000 has been breached, which has visibly stimulated buying interest. Currently, the nearest liquidation zones to the current price are below it, particularly at levels of $46,000 and $47,000. Further down, the $42,000 threshold remains significant. As the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive trigger of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. Thus, these zones represent major points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for the Bitcoin (BTC) Price

If the Bitcoin price manages to maintain above $46,000 – $47,000, we could anticipate a new rise up to the $50,000 threshold. The next resistance to take into account, if the bullish movement continues, would be $52,000 or even $54,000, in the case where Bitcoin comes to fill its bearish gap on futures contracts (CME). At this stage, this would represent a rise close to +8%.

If the Bitcoin price fails to maintain above $46,000 – $47,000, we could envisage support from the buying interest of the $44,000 zone. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $42,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to -15%. 

Conclusion

Bitcoin has reached a new peak by crossing the psychological threshold of $50,000. Thus, it seems that Bitcoin’s bullish dynamics have resumed with vigor. However, after a period of intense volatility, it is common to see a phase of consolidation or correction. Therefore, observing closely the price’s reaction to the different key levels will be crucial to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant to potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Lastly, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and the course of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly based on more fundamental factors.