Bitcoin: SEC plays for time, but ETFs are coming in 2024

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to postpone its decision on Bitcoin ETFs. Despite this dilatory strategy, many observers remain convinced that these crypto index funds will see the light of day in the United States by 2024. Here are some explanations.

A waltz of postponements

While Jacobi Asset Management has just created a historic first by launching the very first Bitcoin spot ETF in Europe on the Amsterdam stock exchange, the situation remains deadlocked across the Atlantic.

Crypto enthusiasts are beginning to feel the clock is ticking. Since 2013, when the Winklevoss brothers first applied for listing, the SEC has been dragging its feet.

For the time being, only ETFs backed by Bitcoin futures contracts have finally been approved from 2021. Since then, they’ve been attracting interest and standing out from other ETFs.

Recent filings are no exception. Whether it’s ARK Invest, Fidelity or other asset management heavyweights, all are facing further postponements, pushing final decisions back to 2024 in some cases. The SEC has the power to delay any application for up to 240 days after its initial registration.

Measured optimism

Despite these repeated delays, many voices in the industry remain confident of a forthcoming adoption. According to a recent study, the probability of approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF is approaching 65% across the Atlantic. The growing influence of behemoths such as BlackRock and Fidelity on regulators argues in favour of an imminent green light.

Other experts speculate that the SEC could approve several ETFs simultaneously. The aim would be to avoid creating an unfair competitive advantage by selecting only one market player. The likes of Cathie Wood and Grayscale’s Michael Sonnenshein are among the most enthusiastic.

The SEC’s reluctance can be partly explained by the still embryonic nature of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. Between the lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance and Ripple, and the sanctions imposed on platforms such as Bittrex, the stock market watchdog still seems hesitant.

Legislative clarifications are under discussion in Congress to better delineate the respective roles of the SEC and CFTC in this new digital Wild West. In addition, the outcome of certain disputes, such as the Ripple case, could set a decisive precedent in jurisprudence.

2024, the likely horizon

Despite the current uncertainties, it seems increasingly likely that these Bitcoin ETFs directly backed by the crypto will eventually land on the other side of the Atlantic by 2024.

The political and economic pressure will be too great for the SEC to stick to its guns. It remains to be seen whether this historic green light will come in early 2024, mid-2024, or late 2024. Whatever the precise timing, there can be no doubt that the arrival of these revolutionary index funds will mark a decisive turning point for crypto-assets. This dynamic could well catalyze bitcoin’s ascent, propelling it potentially beyond the $100,000 mark, in line with Robert Kiyosaki‘s predictions.