Bitcoin Is Rising, But Without Small Investors. Why?

Reaching $65,000 for a Bitcoin was impressive, but that dream only lasted for four days. Today, the star of cryptos fluctuates around $63,700. A moderate decline that raises questions about the participation of small investors in this market. However, it is not their grand return that explains this rise. So, where exactly is the activity of retail traders?

Bitcoin: A rally without small investors?

In the previous bull runs of 2017 and 2021, small investors, sometimes under pressure, were everywhere. The proof? The Coinbase app topped download charts. Currently, Coinbase is relegated to the 438th place, far from the heights reached during previous market peaks.

The signal is clear: small investors are conspicuously absent.

Transfer volumes, for their part, confirm this trend. Transactions under $100,000, often executed by individuals, now represent only half of what they were during the last peak in 2024. The signals are therefore red: the frenzy of individuals seems far behind us.

• Retail transactions: halved since the 2024 peak;
• Coinbase position: 438th in the rankings;
• STH (short-term holders): 2.5 million tokens held.

Crypto trader: Goodbye to STH hype?

The “short-term holders” (STH)—those who buy Bitcoin within 155 days—traditionally play a major role during market peaks. When STHs possess a lot of BTC, it often signifies the end of euphoria.

But, surprise, this time it’s the complete opposite. The amount of bitcoin held by these speculators is in decline. This rally seems to be happening without them.

Transaction fees are also at their lowest, with only $500,000 generated per day, far from periods of high activity.

“Retail investors are quieter than ever“, note some analysts, suggesting a potential rise is yet to come, without the usual enthusiasm from individuals.

It is quite normal for many analysts to suggest that short-term traders, seeing the situation stagnate, have abandoned the Bitcoin ship.