Bitcoin heading towards its ATH? Crypto analysis of February 20, 2024.

Bitcoin closed last week above $52,000, a level it had not reached since the end of the year 2021. Let’s examine together the upcoming outlook for the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) Situation

After surpassing its previous peak at around $48,000, Bitcoin reached a new high around $52,000. It is at this price level that Bitcoin began a consolidation phase, forming a range. The peak of this phase is near $52,900, while the floor is around $50,700. It is important to note that this period of indecision coincides with the time when the price of Bitcoin on the CME futures nearly managed to fill the rest of its bearish gap.

The Bitcoin price sits above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, which, from a technical viewpoint, confirms that the cryptocurrency is in an upward trend. On the oscillators side, they have rebounded well above the median threshold and have exceeded their previous peak as highlighted in our January 13, 2024 analysis. However, it is worth noting that these oscillators are reaching high levels, suggesting that the underlying asset could be overbought.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and trader passionate about the cryptocurrency market. He is now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. You will find Live sessions, educational content, and mutual assistance around financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

It can be observed that the open interest for Bitcoin is evolving similarly to its price. After increasing, they have stabilized, suggesting a balance between buying and selling on the BTC/USDT perpetual contracts. A positive funding rate demonstrates that bullish sentiment remains predominant. In terms of liquidations, there have been no significant ones since the breach of the $49,000 level. This may demonstrate the stability that Bitcoin is currently experiencing.

The heatmap of liquidations for BTC/USD over the last month indicates that the liquidation barrier around $51,300 was recently breached, thus causing a significant increase in buyer interest. For now, the most critical liquidation zone is above the current price, precisely between $52,800 and $52,900. Below the current price, the $52,300 level also remains significant. Going lower, the zone situated below $48,000 is noteworthy. As the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. These areas therefore represent significant points of interest for investors.

The Hypotheses for the Bitcoin (BTC) Price

If the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $50,600, we could anticipate a new rise to the threshold of $53,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be the psychological threshold of $55,000. At this stage, this would represent an increase close to +6%.

If the Bitcoin price fails to maintain above $50,600, we could envision support from buyer interest around the $48,000 zone. The next level to consider, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $47,500 – $47,000. At this stage, this would represent a decrease close to -8%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has reached a new high before beginning a phase of consolidation, thus marking a moment of indecision and strategy revision by investors. For now, everything seems to indicate that the uptrend could continue. However, a potential significant bearish movement could question this perspective. Thus, it appears that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has resumed with strength. Nonetheless, after a period of intense volatility, it is common to see a consolidation phase or a correction. Hence, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or deny the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant for potential “fake outs” and market “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.