Bitcoin : Glassnode warns about liquidity shortage and capital flight

The bitcoin market is going through a delicate phase, marked by a drop in liquidity and a decline in institutional demand. In its November 11, 2026 report, Glassnode describes an environment where capital is gradually leaving the market, despite some signs of accumulation. Investors face increasing pressure, while derivative markets show more defensive strategies. Between fund outflows, option positions, and cautious forecasts, recovery prospects remain difficult to establish sustainably.

Glassnode observes a contraction of liquidity in the bitcoin market

In its report titled “Running on Empty,” published Wednesday, November 11 on X, Glassnode describes a weakened market structure. Several factors now limit bitcoin’s recovery. The decrease in available liquidity, the decline in US demand, and the losses of recent investors weigh on the outlook. This combination reduces resources likely to sustainably support the BTC price.

Glassnode notably points out that the price has dropped below the breakeven threshold for short-term holders, set at 75,600 dollars. A large portion of recent buyers therefore hold losing positions. Meanwhile, the bitcoin market remains less performing than stocks, underscoring its lack of dynamism. The firm also observes a decrease in capital likely to support a fresh upward move.

DefiLlama data on stablecoins reinforce this diagnosis. Their total supply has decreased by 14.2 billion dollars in just 30 days, the fastest drop since June 2022. At the same time, US spot ETFs recorded 1.6 billion dollars of net outflows over twenty sessions. The BTC premium displayed on Coinbase also remains negative, reaching its largest discount since February, according to Glassnode’s observations.

Short-term holders face increasing pressure

The worsening market conditions especially affect investors who bought in recent months. According to Glassnode, only 35% of bitcoins held short-term are currently in profit. This proportion contrasts with that observed at the September peak, when almost all these positions showed gains. The reversal thus places a significant portion of recent buyers facing unrealized losses.

The firm also identifies a significant concentration of bitcoin positions acquired at levels higher than current prices. This excess supply stretches up to 83,600 dollars and could represent an obstacle during a possible rebound. These potential sales then risk limiting price progress. The market must absorb this pressure before any recovery.

The situation presents, however, some supportive elements. Glassnode notes that the recent drop has eliminated a large portion of leveraged long positions near current prices. Moreover, buy orders now exceed sell orders in the order book. Some participants are taking advantage of the lower prices. However, this is not enough to confirm a sustainable return of demand.

Liquidity levels reveal several sensitive zones for bitcoin

Order book analysis helps better understand the levels currently attracting operators’ attention. Glassnode spots significant buy orders between 68,000 and 72,500 dollars. This zone could attract some demand if the BTC price continues to fall. However, the presence of pending orders does not guarantee execution.

Lower data show a concentration of liquidations between 59,500 and 62,600 dollars. This zone could become important if a new wave of sales triggers additional liquidations. Conversely, liquidity available above current prices remains relatively low up to 84,000 dollars. Short positions exhibit a liquidation concentration around 87,500 dollars.

Glassnode also identifies three important landmarks to evaluate the bitcoin market. The first corresponds to the acquisition cost of short-term holders, set at 75,600 dollars. The second is at 77,500 dollars and represents the market’s real average. Finally, the election day’s closing price reaches 77,800 dollars. These three levels constitute references to follow a possible trend change.

Options traders strengthen their protections despite bullish interest

Coinglass data provide additional insights into the positioning of professional bitcoin investors. Open interest on options reaches 439,966 BTC, with an approximate value of 33 billion dollars. Call options represent 55.72% of this volume, against 44.28% for put options. The put/call ratio thus stands at 0.79. This distribution indicates that bullish exposure retains a slight advantage across open contracts.

Deribit concentrates several of the main ongoing positions. Its November call option with a strike price of 81,000 dollars shows a volume of 8,305.9 BTC. The December 25 call at 80,000 dollars follows next with 8,113.9 BTC. The 100,000-dollar contract also represents an important position with 6,612.7 BTC.

Recent bitcoin volumes, however, give a more defensive signal. In the last 24 hours, option exchanges reached 45,210 BTC. Put options accounted for 50.32% of this volume, against 49.68% for call options. Activity mainly focused on the November 12 and 13 expiries, with strike prices between 72,000 and 75,500 dollars. Deribit put contracts at 72,000 and 73,000 dollars and notably recorded 730.3 and 715.8 BTC.

Derivative activity declines after several periods of strong growth

Certain contracts nevertheless recorded significant volumes despite this more cautious direction. The Deribit call option at 100,000 dollars, with a November 27 expiry, totaled 868.3 BTC. A put option at 50,000 dollars, expiring December 25, also reached 673.8 BTC. These exchanges show that investors continue to take positions on different scenarios. They combine opportunity seeking and protection against adverse moves.

Deribit trading volumes also confirm this decline in activity. In September, they had reached around 11.5 billion dollars. During the decline observed this month, they fell back to around 5 billion dollars. This difference shows a significant reduction in bitcoin derivatives trading. It accompanies the general slowdown observed on bitcoin, even if available data do not allow establishing a direct relation between these two evolutions.

Option contracts thus retain a relatively balanced distribution between bullish and bearish positions. However, recent volumes give more room to protective strategies. Near expiries and strike prices around current prices concentrate a significant part of trades. Investors thus seem to watch closely the next current movements. This caution contrasts with the high price targets still present in some longer-dated contracts.

Prediction markets show cautious outlooks for the end of 2026

Prediction markets provide a third reading of the bitcoin situation. On Polymarket, the market dedicated to possible November prices attracted 5.17 million dollars. It covers 28 different targets and assigns a 91% probability to a rise above 75,000 dollars. This probability falls to 62% at 77,500 dollars and 39% at 80,000 dollars. Estimates thus progressively become less favorable as targets increase.

Forecasts about the lower thresholds also show some caution. Participants assign a 73% probability to reaching 72,500 dollars. This estimate reaches 50% for 70,000 dollars and 18% for 65,000 dollars. Conversely, chances of reaching 100,000 dollars during November do not exceed 1%. These figures reflect participants’ expectations, without constituting a guarantee on upcoming moves.

Polymarket market dedicated to targets before 2027 shows similar results. It totals 84.26 million dollars in volume. Probabilities reach 61% for 70,000 dollars, 34% for 65,000 dollars, and 20% for 60,000 dollars. On the upside, participants assign 18% for 90,000 dollars and 6% for 100,000 dollars. The 250,000-dollar target remains below 1%.

Glassnode data, options activity, and prediction markets’ forecasts thus describe a market under pressure, but not an inevitable collapse. ETF outflows and stablecoin contraction signal a withdrawal of available capital. Yet, some intermediate wallets resume their buying, and buy orders exceed sell orders in the studied order book. For the coming weeks, the evolution of flows, recent holders’ behavior and reactions around technical thresholds will be decisive. Bitcoin’s recovery will depend on the return of demand able to absorb potential sales.