Bitcoin - Fidelity Anticipates $15 Trillion by 2030

Fidelity, the second largest investment fund after Blackrock in the ETF race, sees bitcoin reaching 15 trillion dollars within seven years.

Fidelity Bets on Bitcoin

With 3.6 trillion dollars under management, Fidelity is one of the largest asset managers in the world. The American fund expects bitcoin to increase from 800 billion to 15 trillion dollars before the end of the decade.

This is the opinion of Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. He shared his viewpoint last week on X (formerly Twitter).

For Mr. Timmer, bitcoin is like “exponential digital gold”. It has been an “obvious choice since the monetary and fiscal stimuli of 2020”.

“In a monetary inflation regime, we need assets that retain their value during periods of structural inflation,” he wrote.

His analysis emphasizes the cap of 21 million bitcoins compared to the constant increase in the gold supply year after year. Currently, the bitcoin Stock to Flow (S2F) ratio is “far higher than that of gold”.

Indeed, about 187,000 tons of gold have already been mined. With 3,000 tons more each year, gold sports a ratio of about 60. It would therefore take 60 years to double the amount of gold in circulation.

In contrast, this ratio will rise to 120 in the case of bitcoin from the next “halving” in April. It will then officially be twice as hard to create as gold.

Furthermore, Mr. Timmer sees bitcoin as a network whose adoption is experiencing “exponential growth”. A growth “similar to the S-curves of various technological innovations such as railroads, radio, or mobile phones.”

Bitcoin’s adoption has followed a classic S-curve path. S-curves are exponential growth curves that are attributes of technological innovations. We can see in the chart below that S-curves go back several hundred years, from railroad miles to radios to cell phones. /7 pic.twitter.com/SiqGb4Kk41

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 7, 2023

The first chart suggests that bitcoin will reach 15 trillion dollars by the end of the decade. This would be nearly 15 times its current market capitalization. That would give us a bitcoin at 645,000 dollars.

Don’t miss our article on the Fidelity report that addresses the nine recurring criticisms against bitcoin.