Bitcoin Falls Below $90,000: How Far Will It Drop? – February 25, 2025 Analysis

After a consolidation around $96,500, bitcoin faced selling pressure, bringing its price back to the support level of $89,000. Check out Elyfe’s analysis to decode the technical outlook for BTC.

Bitcoin Price Situation (BTC)

After attempting a rebound from $91,350, the bitcoin consolidated between $93,450 and $99,150. Unfortunately, this zone was broken from below, confirming the hypothesis made in the February 19, 2025 analysis. Indeed, bitcoin dropped about 10%. It fell below the first monthly pivot support to reach the support zone identified around $89,000, which is below the lower part of the range initiated since the end of 2024.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $88,000. It reached $86,900, its lowest level since the new ATH of bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is now clearly below a significant value area, under the annual VWAP and its 50-day moving average, indicating a clearly bearish short-term trend.

Although the long-term trend remains bullish, the medium-term trend is now neutral and could confirm a reversal as the decline accelerates.

Unsurprisingly, the bullish momentum of bitcoin has been revised downward. This is reflected both in its price and in its oscillators, which have reached new lows.

The current technical analysis has been conducted in collaboration with Elyfe, investor and popularizer in the cryptocurrency market.

Focus on Derivatives (BTC/USDT)

In recent weeks, we have observed a simultaneous stabilization of open interest and the underlying price, signaling a phase of market consolidation. However, the bearish recovery of BTC has led to a decrease in open interest, suggesting a gradual exit from positions on BTC/USDT perpetual contracts.

Unfortunately, the decline in CVD has accelerated again, reflecting a predominance of sell orders in the current market. This momentum suggests a resurgence of seller aggressiveness, illustrating significant selling intent from investors.

The drop in bitcoin has led to the largest liquidations of long positions since the beginning of 2025, with nearly $331 million liquidated in just two days. This wave of liquidations reflects strong selling pressure and increased volatility in the market, weakening buying strength. Nevertheless, the funding rate for BTC/USDT contracts remains slightly positive, indicating resilience from buyers despite the selling pressure.

The heatmap of perpetual BTC/USDT contract liquidations reveals that bitcoin has reached a major liquidation zone, identified around $88,000. Some buying interest seems to have emerged, as evidenced by the sudden rebound in price upon contacting this level.

Currently, the key liquidation zones are located on either side of the current price.

• Above, the first liquidation zone is identified between $97,000 and $98,000, followed by a larger zone around $100,000. This last extends up to $104,000 and precedes another zone between $107,000 and $111,000.
• Below, the last liquidation zone reached extends up to $84,500. Lower, another zone is located around $80,000, followed by a more marked zone towards $74,000.

These thresholds represent major inflection points for the market. An approach to the price towards these levels could trigger massive orders, thus playing a key role in the upcoming movements, depending on supply and demand dynamics.

Bitcoin Price Forecasts (BTC)

• If bitcoin manages to hold above $86,800, a recovery could allow it to reintegrate $90,700, thus opening the way towards resistance at $99,400. Exceeding this threshold could favor a return to $106,000, then to its ATH at $109,354, representing an increase of about 22%.
• Conversely, if bitcoin cannot hold above $86,800, it might find support around $85,000. A prolonged decline would then bring its price back to the threshold of $81,700, or even $78,500. Finally, breaking this level could lead to another drop towards the $76,000 zone, representing a decrease of about 15%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin shows signs of weakness with persistent selling pressure. Its bullish momentum is fading, giving way to a phase of uncertainty where buyers are struggling to regain control. As long as key levels are not reclaimed, the risk of further decline remains. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor price reactions at strategic levels to confirm or adjust current forecasts.

Finally, let us remind you that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.

Did you find this study interesting? Check out our latest XRP analysis.