Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000! Analysis from July 9, 2024

While Bitcoin was consolidating above $60,000, selling pressure pushed the BTC price below its support. Let’s analyze the future outlook of the BTC price together.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Situation

After a slight rebound to $60,000, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure, causing a drop in the cryptocurrency below its support zone at $61,000, then below its previous daily support. The Bitcoin price thus experienced a drop of about 16%. It should be noted that this decline was fueled by the FUD caused by the sale of Bitcoin by the German and American governments as well as the start of the distribution of Bitcoin from MTGox. It was at $53,500 that the cryptocurrency sparked buying interest, allowing it to reintegrate its former support around $56,500.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading around $57,300. Although BTC’s short-term structure is bearish, its medium-long-term trend remains bullish. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s recent fluctuations have caused its price to fall below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, naturally casting doubt on the continuation of the latter. On the price dynamics side, it can be observed that it continues to decrease, as evidenced by the BTC price itself as well as the oscillators. Thus, the next identified support around $52,000 can be anticipated.

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today, he is an instructor at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. There you will find Lives, educational content, and mutual support around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has unsurprisingly dropped along with the price of its underlying asset. This indicates a reduction in speculators’ participation in BTC/USDT perpetual contracts. This drop was accompanied by more than $46 million in long position liquidations, indicating a capitulation of buyers during this decline. That said, the funding rate remained positive during these fluctuations, showing a majority of speculators are oriented towards buying.

Recently, one can observe the BTC/USDT price slightly regaining strength, causing short position liquidations. Moreover, it is noted that the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has not significantly increased. This phenomenon suggests, at the current moment, a lack of confidence to continue this movement, or even the appearance of selling conviction from speculators.

The liquidation heatmap of recent months indicates that BTC/USDT has sparked buying interest upon reaching the subtle liquidation zone around $56,000. It seems that this area is being defended for now. Currently, the most significant liquidation zones over the past six months are found on either side of the Bitcoin price. Above the current price, we can note the $64,000 zone. However, the most apparent one is further away, located at $72,300. Below the current price, we can note the well-apparent zone around $50,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

• As long as the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $53,500, we can anticipate a return of BTC above $58,500. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be the $60,000 to $61,000 zone. Higher up, we can highlight $63,800. At this stage, this would represent an increase of about 12%.

• If the Bitcoin price does not stay above $53,500, one could consider buyer interest support around $51,800. The next level to consider, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $50,500. Lower, we can highlight the price range between $49,200 and $48,200. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to 15%.

Conclusion

Despite a medium-long-term bullish trend, Bitcoin is facing selling pressure that recently led to a notable decline, fueled by external factors. The current price dynamics indicate a possible continuation of the decline to the next identified support. Nevertheless, it will be crucial to closely observe the price’s reaction to various key levels to confirm or invalidate current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant to potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Lastly, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can also evolve quickly based on other more fundamental factors.