Bitcoin, ETH And XRP Face Extreme Fear, Santiment Says

The sentiment around bitcoin, Ether and XRP has fallen into bearish territory, fueling hopes of a countertrend rebound. However, the fear observed on social media does not prove that sales are over: the real signal will come from the return of spot demand.

Bitcoin, Ether and XRP plunge into pessimism

Santiment analyzed discussions posted on X, Reddit, Telegram and other platforms. As of November 10, negative comments dominated for the three major tracked cryptos, with a particularly sharp deterioration for XRP.

The ratios measure the number of bullish comments for each bearish comment. The results show three levels of distrust :

• Bitcoin shows 0.82 bullish comments per bearish comment ;
• Ether presents a slightly higher ratio of 0.88 ;
• XRP falls to 0.49, or only 49 positive comments for 100 negative ones ;
• A ratio below 1 means that pessimism dominates discussions.

Santiment declared:

Retail fear reaches its boiling point as cryptos test major lows.

The company believes that major rallies rarely begin when the majority of the market expect them.

The deterioration is particularly rapid for Ethereum. Its ratio was still 2.05 on October 13, compared to 0.88 now. XRP’s ratio fell from 0.92 to 0.49 over the same period, while bitcoin stayed at 0.82. Fear has therefore not spread at the same rate: it has especially intensified around the two altcoins.

Social fear does not mean that sales are exhausted

An extremely negative sentiment can become a contrary indicator. When the majority of investors already expect a new decline, a large part of the pessimism can be integrated into prices. Then, the slightest improvement sometimes triggers buybacks and surprises short sellers.

This mechanism is not automatic, however. Santiment’s ratio measures comments, not the capital actually invested. A user can post several negative messages without selling tokens, while a fund might sell millions of dollars without commenting on its decision on social media.

The formula used by Santiment must therefore be nuanced. The company states that if bearish comments continue to dominate, prices will “inevitably experience a strong relief rebound”. However, negative sentiment can persist throughout an entire bearish phase. It indicates that traders are afraid, but not necessarily that they have finished selling.

Financial flows remain unfavorable. In November, US ETFs recorded about $1.58 billion in bitcoin withdrawals, $551.1 million on Ether and $18.57 million on XRP. At the same time, large wallets reportedly sold 34,000 BTC and 17,800 ETH. XRP whales have, on the contrary, accumulated 65.32 million tokens.

This divergence is essential. XRP evokes the most pessimistic comments while some large addresses are buying. For bitcoin and Ether, retail fear still accompanies sales from large holders. The same social indicator therefore does not produce the same signal for the three assets.

The next rebound will have to pass the test of flows

Bitcoin had returned to around $74,000 after dropping below this level on November 10. Ether was trading near $2,057, while XRP remained close to $1.05. These limited movements look more like a stabilization than a confirmed reversal.

Bitfinex analysts believe that a lasting recovery requires stronger direct bitcoin purchases. They also identify a selling zone between $75,900 and $77,500. A rebound failing in this interval would confirm that supply remains sufficient to contain buyers.

Three confirmations would distinguish a solid recovery from a simple surge: the return of ETF inflows, an increase in spot volumes and the durable breaching of first resistances. Without these elements, price improvement could remain a relief rebound triggered by covering short positions.

Extreme fear thus creates a configuration more favorable to a bullish surprise, but it provides neither the timing nor the magnitude. The most useful signal will not be the moment when comments become optimistic again. It will be when capital starts coming in again while the general discourse remains negative.