Bitcoin Drops Below $80K : A Market Turning Point ?

The volatility of Bitcoin is once again at the heart of the debates. As the cryptocurrency briefly dipped below $79,000, Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the correction could intensify and bring BTC back into a range between $69,000 and $76,500 by Monday. This projection is based on several market indicators, notably the selling pressure exerted by the massive outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and the increase in short positions by hedge funds. Should this drop be seen as a mere correction or the signal of a deeper reversal?

Bitcoin ETF in a Turbulent Zone

For several weeks, the capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs have been significantly slowing down. According to Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of cryptocurrency research at Standard Chartered, the cumulative net redemptions of Bitcoin ETFs have reached $2.5 billion since the US presidential election. This dynamic could continue to weigh on the market in the short term.

Recent figures confirm this downward trend. On Tuesday, the market recorded over $1 billion in ETF redemptions in a single day, a notably high volume that indicates a gradual disengagement of institutional investors. “ETF investors remain largely exposed to the upside. But if they start to panic and liquidate their positions, selling pressure could intensify,” warns Kendrick. This hypothesis seems to be confirmed with BTC dropping below $80,000, a level that had previously served as a key psychological threshold.

Meanwhile, the dynamics of speculative funds are fueling this correction. Short positions on Bitcoin, or in other words, the bearish bets of hedge funds, have increased by 43 % since November, growing from $7.9 billion to $11.3 billion according to CFTC data. This configuration reflects the anticipation of a bearish market on the part of the most aggressive investors.

Towards a Repetition of the 2024 Scenario ?

Beyond the movements of ETFs and the strategies of hedge funds, some observers draw a parallel with August 2024, when Bitcoin experienced a brutal correction from $70,000 to $50,000 in just one week. According to Kendrick, there are several similarities with the current situation. Furthermore, “if the market configuration remains the same, a new drop of 5.5 % would bring us into the range of $69,000 to $76,500,” he estimates.

Another factor to watch is the evolution of the macroeconomic and political context. With the rise of economic tensions in the United States, particularly around new tariff measures announced by Donald Trump, all risk assets, including Bitcoin, could be impacted. The uncertainty surrounding monetary policies and the upcoming decisions of the Federal Reserve could also amplify volatility in the markets.

In this context, two scenarios are emerging: either a quick stabilization if buyers massively position themselves on identified supports, or a new wave of cascading sales if fear sets in and pushes investors to liquidate more positions. The upcoming market sessions will thus be decisive in assessing whether this retreat is a buying opportunity or the prelude to a deeper correction movement.