Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000! Analysis Of November 5, 2024

After approaching its ATH, Bitcoin experienced a decline that brought its price below the $68,000 mark. Let’s examine the evolving outlook for BTC.

Situation of Bitcoin’s Price (BTC)

After surpassing $70,000, Bitcoin continued its expansion. It advanced further, narrowly missing its all-time high by just $173. Indeed, the leading cryptocurrency reached a peak just below $73,600 before facing selling pressure that brought its price back under $68,000. Thus, the rise initiated by Bitcoin during the last week of October has been absorbed, forming a shooting star candlestick. However, it is worth noting that the cryptocurrency recorded a gain of 10.86% for October.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading around $67,500. It is interesting to observe that the cryptocurrency oscillates around this price level, which corresponds to an important value area, itself located at the monthly pivot point. This thereby demonstrates the technical interest of this price level. Although Bitcoin has been bearish in the short term, it is important to note that it remains in an upward trend in the medium term. This can be confirmed by the fact that the cryptocurrency remains above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, which are still crossed and oriented upwards, not to mention that the structure of the asset adheres to Dow’s theory. Regarding the buying dynamic of BTC, unsurprisingly, it has been revised downwards, as can be seen by both its oscillators and its price itself.

The current technical analysis has been conducted in collaboration with E, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today, he trains at Family Trading, a community of thousands of active proprietary traders since 2017. You will find live sessions, educational content, and mutual support around financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest of BTC perpetual contracts and its CVD evolve in line with the underlying asset’s price, showing a decreasing interest from speculators, with a predominantly bearish trend among them. On the funding rate side, we observe that they remain positive, confirming the ongoing optimism among speculators on Bitcoin perpetual contracts. Regarding liquidations, they are not significant, although we can note liquidations of buyer positions, which have recently been dominant. This could illustrate a capitulation of buyers on Bitcoin perpetual contracts.

The liquidation heat map shows that BTC/USDT has reached a significant liquidation zone just below $73,000. A selling interest for the cryptocurrency seems to have emerged, leading to a downwards revision of its price. Currently, the liquidation zones are significantly fewer, although some remain notable. Above the current price, there is a zone just above $73,100. Below, there is a zone near $65,000, and further down, around $59,000. If the price approaches these levels, this could trigger a large number of orders, thereby increasing the risk of volatility for the cryptocurrency. These zones thus constitute a crucial point of interest for investors.

Forecasts for Bitcoin’s Price (BTC)

• If Bitcoin’s price remains above $64,000, a break of $69,500 could be considered. If the bullish movement continues, the $70,000 threshold could be reached, potentially followed by the levels of $71,500 and $73,000. Ultimately, this could even approach the last peak of $73,600, representing a progression of about 9%.

• If Bitcoin fails to stay above $64,000, a correction towards $62,000 could be considered. In case of a continued decline, the next support could be around $60,000. Even lower, the $58,000 zone represents a notable support, whose breach would imply a decline of about 14%.

Conclusion

Despite recent volatility and some selling pressures, Bitcoin maintains a positive medium-term dynamic, supported by favorable technical signals. Its overall structure remains consistent with an upward trend, even though the buying momentum shows some signs of slowing. Thus, it will be essential to closely monitor the price’s reaction at key levels in order to validate or adjust the current forecasts. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and that cryptocurrency prices can evolve quickly based on other, more fundamental factors.