Bitcoin (BTC) en route to a new high? Crypto analysis of January 30, 2023

Bitcoin has finally held above the $40,000 support level. Let’s examine the future outlook for the BTC price together.

The Situation of Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin initially appeared to continue its recent downtrend, it ultimately closed the week of January 22 on a positive note. Indeed, the Bitcoin price started the new week above the $42,000 mark. The weekly candle thus formed a hammer above the $41,500 support. This phenomenon can be interpreted as an encouraging sign for a potential bullish recovery. Currently, the Bitcoin price is trading slightly below $43,000. It’s important to note that this price level has recently acted as resistance. Additionally, it corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, taken from Bitcoin’s last peak.

This rebound allowed Bitcoin to reintegrate its 50-day moving average upwards, which could reinforce investors’ confidence in the continuation of the cryptocurrency’s bullish trend. Regarding oscillators, they also responded positively. This is especially relevant as Bitcoin’s medium and long-term trend continues to be revised upwards. This development could suggest a resumption of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum after a period of overselling. However, the bearish divergence between these oscillators and the price of Bitcoin still suggests a potential risk of a future market downturn.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, an enthusiastic investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. He is now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. Here you can find Lives, educational content, and mutual support around financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The recent rises in Bitcoin were accompanied by an increase in open interest. Indeed, the latter has risen significantly at levels around $40,000 and $42,000. With Bitcoin following an upward trajectory, we can deduce that investor interest at these levels is predominantly on the buy side. Consequently, these price levels represent significant bullish interest points. As for liquidations, they have not been significant, which may indirectly reflect a general confidence of investors in the current trend.

The BTC/USD liquidation heatmap indicates that Bitcoin recently crossed two zones with a high concentration of orders, located around $42,200 and $43,000. The current bullish trend of Bitcoin suggests that investor interest is mainly focused on buying. Now, the most relevant liquidation zones below the current price are at $41,700 and $39,500. Above the current price, the levels to note are $44,000 and $45,000. As the market approaches these levels, we may witness a massive triggering of orders, which could potentially increase the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas are therefore major points of interest for investors.

Possible Scenarios for the Bitcoin Price (BTC)

If the Bitcoin price manages to hold above $42,000, we could anticipate a further rise to the $45,000 threshold. The next resistance to consider if the bullish movement continues would be $46,000 to $49,000. At this stage, it would represent a rise of nearly +13%.

If the Bitcoin price fails to hold above $42,000, we could envisage a return to the $40,000 level. The next level to consider if the downtrend continues would be around $38,500. At this stage, it would represent a drop of nearly -11%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has finally initiated a bullish movement counteracting its corrective phase. But has it fully emerged from trouble? What’s certain is that it will be crucial to closely observe the price reaction to various key levels to confirm or invalidate the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant for potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also change rapidly based on other more fundamental factors.