Bitcoin (BTC): Make or break? July 27, 2023 analysis

After a month-long range, the bitcoin price has come to make new lows since its annual ATH. What’s the outlook for the leading cryptocurrency?

Current BTC situation

In last month’s Bitcoin analysis, we discussed three scenarios, one of which referred to a consolidation phase in the form of a range. One month on, this scenario has come to fruition. Indeed, the BTC price has formed a range between $30K and $32K. Earlier this week, Bitcoin broke out of this range to take the cryptocurrency up to $29K. If this isn’t a fake out, then it doesn’t look encouraging for Bitcoin’s future fluctuations.

The current technical analysis was produced in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. Here you’ll find livestreams, educational content and mutual support around the financial markets in a warm, professional atmosphere.

The latest weekly candles illustrate the indecision present below the $30-32K resistance. From a chartist’s point of view, when you zoom out on the chart, you can see a cup with a handle. This figure is suitable for a bullish scenario. Volumes linked to bitcoin are low. This does not demonstrate real enthusiasm for Bitcoin. Paradoxically, Bitcoin’s open interest remains close to its 2023 highs. The BTC price is just above the 50 moving average, itself above the daily 200 moving average. Both are pointing upwards. We can therefore deduce that the BTC price is continuing its upward trend. On the other hand, we can deduce that this trend is weakening when we look at oscillators such as the RSI or MACD.

Hypotheses for the bitcoin price

For a bullish scenario, we’d have to consider the reintegration of the range between $30-32K. An upward break of this zone could provide us with new bullish targets, starting with the $35K or even $38K zone.

For a bearish scenario, we’d first have to imagine a return to $28K. Breaking this level could give us the $25K support as our next objective. Finally, if the latter doesn’t hold, we’ll have to hope that the $21K support holds out.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a decisive phase. The BTC price is below major resistance. As a result, the next moves are likely to be decisive. It will be important to keep a close eye on how the price reacts at the various levels identified, in order to confirm or refute the various hypotheses made. Watch out for potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” on each of these situations. And remember that these scenarios are based solely on technical analysis. Cryptocurrency prices may evolve more or less rapidly, depending on other, more fundamental factors.