Bitcoin: Bernstein Reiterates Its $200,000 Forecast And Advises Buying The Dip

Despite the recent drop in prices, the financial analysis firm Bernstein remains optimistic and maintains its ambitious forecast of $200,000 for bitcoin. Its analysts view this correction as a strategic buying opportunity ahead of the next cycle peak.

Bernstein predicts a Bitcoin at $200,000 in 12 months

Bernstein published this week an analysis note sent to The Block, in which its experts maintain their price target of bitcoin at $200,000 over a 12-month horizon. This projection comes as the crypto market experiences a significant correction phase, with bitcoin recently falling below the $87,000 mark.

According to Bernstein’s analysts, a price below $80,000 would represent a particularly attractive entry point for investors. “We believe that price levels below $80,000, if sentiment continues to weaken, would offer an interesting risk-reward ratio for investors looking to position themselves for the next 12 to 18 months towards new cycle peaks,” they specify in their report. This view is based on their conviction that bitcoin has not yet reached its cyclical peak.

Bernstein’s bullish position rests on a fundamental thesis: bitcoin is establishing itself as a “digital gold “ asset class, driven by accelerating institutional and sovereign demand. According to their analysis, capital inflows from institutions and companies should continue to grow throughout the current cycle, thereby supporting the price progression towards their $200,000 target.

A market in correction facing multiple challenges

Bernstein’s reassessment comes in a particularly tense market context. Bitcoin recently fell below $87,000, its lowest level since November 2024, losing over 7% in 24 hours. This decline is part of a broader corrective trend driven by several factors identified by analysts.

Among the causes of this volatility, Bernstein notably cites the consequences of the major Bybit hack, estimated at $1.5 billion, as well as the controversy surrounding the Libra token backed by Argentine President Javier Milei.

Additionally, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $516 million in outflows in a single day, bringing total withdrawals to $1.14 billion in two weeks, according to data from Farside Investors.

Alongside these sector-specific events, analysts emphasize that “the Bitcoin market follows the general risk sentiment of stocks, driven by macroeconomic concerns around ever-increasing interest rates“.

An accumulation dynamic that continues

The trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, with the announcement of a possible visit by Xi Jinping to the United States, as well as growing concerns over AI investment spending, also contribute to this volatility. This analysis aligns with that of Iliya Kalchev from Nexo, who notes that “global economic factors exert considerable influence on the crypto market, making bitcoin vulnerable to external pressures. “

Against this bearish trend, some institutional players like Strategy continue to strengthen their position. Between February 18 and 23, the company acquired an additional 20,356 BTC for $1.99 billion, bringing its total to nearly 500,000 bitcoins, or about 2.3% of the global supply.

Despite the current volatility and the 76% drop in Bitcoin blockchain activity, Bernstein remains confident in its long-term projection. As Raoul Pal reminds us, “in 2017, we experienced five corrections of over 28%, each lasting two to three months, before reaching new highs.” This historical perspective suggests that corrections are an integral part of bitcoin’s bull cycles and could even offer strategic opportunities for patient investors.