Bitcoin, ATH in perspective? Analysis of June 4, 2024

After two consecutive weeks of increase, the Bitcoin price is undergoing a consolidation phase. Let’s analyze together the future perspectives of the BTC price.

Situation of the Bitcoin Price (BTC)

Bitcoin is still within a medium-term range between $60,000 and its highest historical level close to $73,500. After gaining strength from the lower part of this range, Bitcoin has regained its resistance identified around $71,000 – $72,000. It is at this price level that the BTC price lost momentum while regaining $67,000. In the short term, this level seems to act as support on which the Bitcoin price has entered a phase of indecision. The upper part of this consolidation seems to be identified around $70,000. Recently, it appears that the BTC price has lately rejected this level.

Indeed, at the time of writing this text, Bitcoin is trading below $69,000. The cryptocurrency still seems to be going through a short-term period of indecision. However, it should be noted that the medium and long-term trend remains bullish, as demonstrated by Dow theory and the 50 and 200-day moving averages. These, being below the current Bitcoin price and trending upwards, can confirm this observation. As for the bullish dynamics of the cryptocurrency, it seems to be regaining strength but remains nevertheless feeble, as shown by oscillators and the price itself.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of self-directed traders active since 2017. There you will find Lives, educational content, and support around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has evolved almost in parallel with the cryptocurrency price, indicating a sentiment predominantly geared towards buying by speculators. This hypothesis can be confirmed by a positive funding rate, reflecting a price discrepancy between BTCUSDT contracts and their underlying asset, likely due to upward pressure. As for liquidations, they are not significant, demonstrating a market that is evolving healthily.

The liquidation heatmap of the last three months indicates that the BTC/USDT has breached two previously notified liquidation zones in the analysis of May 22. Now, Bitcoin’s fluctuations have left behind two new zones above and below the current price. Above, the zone is between $72,000 and $74,000. Below, the zone is between $65,000 and $67,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. These zones thus represent major points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for the Bitcoin Price (BTC)

• As long as the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $66,000, we can anticipate the break of $72,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish move continues, would be Bitcoin’s ATH below $74,000. Higher, we can highlight the first Fibonacci extension level identified at $78,300. At this stage, this would represent a 13% increase.

• If the Bitcoin price does not stay above $66,000, we could consider buyer interest support at $65,000 or even $63,000. The next level to consider, if the bearish move continues, would be around $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a decline close to -13%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin recently showed a renewed interest in the lower part of its medium-term range. After regaining a key resistance, BTC entered a phase of indecision, questioning this recent interest. Technically, everything suggests that the rise could continue, however, it will be crucial to closely observe the price reactions to different key levels to confirm or invalidate the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can also evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.