Bitcoin at the Dawn of a Supercycle?

The Bitcoin market may be entering a new era. For the first time since its inception, the flagship crypto is 100 days ahead of its traditional bullish cycle, paving the way for a potential “supercycle.” This acceleration, highlighted in the latest CoinMarketCap report, could disrupt usual predictions and signal a possible price surge well ahead of initial expectations.

An unprecedented acceleration of the bullish cycle

According to the latest report published by CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently “about 100 days ahead” of its four-year bullish cycle, generally marked by the halving. This report, based on an analysis of the third quarter of 2024, indicates that Bitcoin’s price could reach its historical peak by mid-2025, much earlier than previous cycles. Thus, “this acceleration could signal Bitcoin’s entry into a supercycle,” specifies the report, a hypothesis that intrigues many financial experts.

One of the main reasons for this acceleration is related to the increase in institutional adoption. Major companies such as MicroStrategy have massively invested in Bitcoin, thereby strengthening confidence in this crypto. Moreover, the approval of several Bitcoin ETF in the United States has consolidated this dynamic through the entry of a new wave of investors, particularly those from the traditional financial sector. These combined factors create a unique situation that could transform Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months to come.

A shift in dynamics in the crypto market

Besides the acceleration of the bullish cycle, CoinMarketCap also reports a change in correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets. The report shows a “growing correlation with assets like gold and technology stocks,” a trend that reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is becoming an asset increasingly integrated into traditional financial markets. This could have major consequences, especially in terms of volatility, as Bitcoin would now react to stock market dynamics more intensely than before.

Such a change in market dynamics is accompanied by another significant development : the rise of more speculative sectors such as artificial intelligence, memecoins, and media. While sectors like crypto-related storage and lending saw their capitalization decrease by nearly 40 % in the third quarter, other more consumer-oriented domains are experiencing renewed interest. This transition towards more “speculative” sectors shows a reorientation of investments that could, in the long run, influence the priorities and composition of the crypto market.

The unexpected acceleration of Bitcoin’s bullish cycle, coupled with a transformation of market dynamics, may well herald a new era for crypto. As Bitcoin continues to draw closer to traditional financial assets, it remains to be seen whether this structural change will be sustainable or if the market will return to its usual cycles, where volatility could be both an opportunity and a risk.