Bitcoin At $56,000: Why Aren't Professional Traders Panicking?

Bitcoin fell to $56,000, losing nearly 5% of its value in a few days. However, professional traders are showing some resilience. Liquidations are moderate and market indicators show unexpected stability, a notable contrast to previous phases of volatility.

Traders withstand the storm

Bitcoin fell to $55,860 after reaching $59,090 earlier in the month. This drop led to the liquidation of long positions on the futures market. According to available data, nearly $58 million was liquidated. This relatively modest amount indicates that long-term investors were not caught off guard by this decline. That’s why they don’t seem to have used excessive leverage. In fact, despite this situation, the premium on Bitcoin futures contracts remains at 6%. Such a level is considered neutral, as between 5% and 10%.

Furthermore, Bitcoin options, another key market indicator, also reveal this lack of widespread pessimism. The delta skew, which measures the difference between call and put option prices, has remained stable around 3% in recent days, well below the 7% threshold that would indicate fear of a more significant correction. In short, even if Bitcoin is down, professional traders are not anticipating a further drastic drop in the immediate future.

Economic factors in the background

Employment figures released in the United States, notably the ADP report, show the creation of 99,000 jobs in August, well below forecasts. This data has weighed on Bitcoin’s momentum. Indeed, it has fueled concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to avoid a recession and control inflation, although they are not sufficient on their own to trigger a massive wave of Bitcoin sales.

Monetary policy and tensions around the upcoming US presidency add a layer of uncertainty that could influence Bitcoin. If the history of halving cycles repeats itself, Bitcoin could still see a recovery in the coming months. If this trend continues, a rebound could materialize by the end of the year.

Even if Bitcoin’s decline fuels speculation about the end of a bullish cycle, technical indicators and macroeconomic data still do not offer clear signals of a widespread bearish trend.