Bitcoin at $50,000 - The planets align

Bitcoin has just reclaimed the $50,000 mark for the first time since 2021 under much more favorable conditions than before.

Remember 2022

For the Bitcoiner @MitchellHold, the context has changed significantly since 2021, when over 50% of bitcoins were held by “weak hands”.

Many faltered following the collapse of the Terra/Luna Ponzi scheme, which triggered Bitcoin’s fall from $70,000. And others still due to the fraudulent collapse of FTX.

Caroline Ellison stated last year that Sam Bankman-Fried had instructed her to “sell Bitcoin as long as it was above $20,000”… And this with an equivalent of $10 billion siphoned from FTX to his personal investment fund (Alameda).

The final blow was the Fed’s sudden interest rate hike. The US stock market plunged, dragging Bitcoin down to $16,000. A drop of more than 70% from the ATH (All-Time High).

All that is behind us. Currently, the only dark cloud reminiscent of the woes of 2022 is the GBTC ETF GBTC. This is due to the liquidation of FTX’s shares to sell.

In the short term, like FTX, which took advantage of the post-ETF validation rise to liquidate its stake in GBTC, there are concerns that Genesis might follow suit. We are talking about shares representing $1.5 billion.

Update: This is what #Bitcoin  looks like for the citizens of Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina, Lebanon and Pakistan.
A combined population of
725 MILLION people
Nigeria and Argentina price more than doubled since I posted this 2 months ago 🤯 pic.twitter.com/EIiMEpgqWl

— Tahini’s (@TheRealTahinis) February 11, 2024

Aside from Genesis (and the perennial issue of Mt. Gox), the skies are much clearer than in 2022.

Bitcoin Bull Run

Today, more than 70% of bitcoins haven’t changed hands for over a year. The army of Hodlers, in no rush to sell, is growing day by day.

Bitcoin is already at an all-time high for over 725 million people living in Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina, Lebanon, and Pakistan:

Update: This is what #Bitcoin  looks like for the citizens of Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina, Lebanon and Pakistan.
A combined population of
725 MILLION people
Nigeria and Argentina price more than doubled since I posted this 2 months ago 🤯 pic.twitter.com/EIiMEpgqWl

— Tahini’s (@TheRealTahinis) February 11, 2024

Of course, the big difference from 2022 is that major American investment funds like BlackRock and Fidelity are now involved. On average, their ETFs’ net accumulation is 2,000 BTC per day.

This is compared to the daily supply of 900 BTC—a figure that will halve starting from the halving in April. Therefore, 2024 is set to be a year of double impact on demand and supply.

The icing on the cake, central banks seem on the verge of lowering rates. Historically, the Fed usually waits about eight months after its last rate hike before cutting rates.

However, the markets are no longer convinced. The probability of a rate cut in March has dropped to 19%. The reason is that the situation in the Middle East is explosive. Another surge in energy prices to postpone the rate cut.

In some cases (1997 and 1969), the Fed waited up to 18 months before beginning to cut rates. Rate cuts are guaranteed, but perhaps not immediately.

Regardless, enough factors are aligned for Bitcoin to set a new record this year.