Bitcoin and Runes: Post-Boom, Excitement Fades

The launch of Runes, which occurred on April 20, the day of the fourth bitcoin halving, was spectacular. Fueled by the hype surrounding this major event, Runes attracted considerable attention, sparking intense debate about the future and utility of bitcoin. However, a month after this explosive launch, the enthusiasm seems to have waned, giving way to more measured reflection on their true impact.

An initial exaggerated enthusiasm for bitcoin

On April 20, the bitcoin market was shaken by the arrival of Runes. That day, Runes transactions accounted for 57.7% of all bitcoin transactions, far surpassing other types of transactions such as ordinals and BRC-20 tokens.

This sudden domination, though spectacular, was not sustainable in the long term. The hype surrounding the bitcoin halving played a crucial role in this explosion of initial interest.

The impact of Runes was particularly noticeable in the early days. On April 20, 3,344 Runes were carved, generating nearly 3 million dollars in fees.

However, this intense activity did not persist. By April 23, the number of Runes carved had fallen to 625, with corresponding fees plummeting to $73,793. Although April 26 saw a peak with 23,061 Runes carved, this momentum was not maintained, dropping to just 139 Runes carved by May 20.

Data provided by Dune Analytics shows a fluctuating trend in Runes activity. Initially, their share of bitcoin transaction fees was impressive, reaching 70.1% on the day of their launch. However, this share fluctuated greatly, peaking at 81.3% on April 23 before falling to 17.8% a month later.

This instability reflects the initial enthusiasm followed by an inevitable adjustment. The fees generated by Runes transactions also followed a similar curve. By May 20, Runes transactions accounted for only 8.7% of total fees, a significant drop from the initial figures. These fluctuations illustrate the difficulty of maintaining a high level of activity over a prolonged period.

Lessons learned

Despite the decline in their popularity, Runes have marked the bitcoin market indelibly. During the first 30 days, the creation of 92,713 Runes generated a total of 2,299 BTC in transaction fees. This initial activity allowed for the testing of Runes’ viability and their potential impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Runes now seem to be settling into a more stable, albeit less dominant, role within the market. This pattern is reminiscent of Bitcoin Ordinals, which also experienced initial enthusiasm followed by stabilization. As Runes become an integral part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, their influence on fees and transactions should continue to diminish, leading to more stable and predictable integration.

The launch of Runes has illustrated just how volatile the crypto market can be. After a spectacular start, interest in Runes quickly waned, highlighting the difficulty of maintaining sustained attention in this sector. Nonetheless, Runes have managed to leave a lasting mark on the bitcoin market, demonstrating both the opportunities and challenges associated with introducing new innovations in the cryptocurrency space. The future of Runes, though less flamboyant, remains promising as a stable component of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Meanwhile, bitcoin is decoupling from other assets.