Bitcoin And Nasdaq Align Like Never Before

The correlation of bitcoin with the Nasdaq reaches its highest level in two years, exceeding 0.70 according to Bloomberg data. This synchronization occurs at a critical moment, as markets hold their breath before the release of the next report on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

A historic Bitcoin – Nasdaq correlation that worries the markets

On January 15, analysts observed a correlation above 0.70 between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index, a level not reached since 2023. This synchronization occurs as the bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000, marking its first return to this level since January 7.

Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, warns of possible increased volatility, pointing out that higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a simultaneous correction in both equity and crypto markets.

The sensitivity of bitcoin to macroeconomic data has significantly strengthened in recent months, reflecting its maturation as a financial asset. Institutional investors, now major players in the crypto market, are increasingly aligning their strategies with traditional economic indicators, thereby reinforcing this correlation.

This growing interconnection raises questions about bitcoin’s ability to maintain its status as a safe haven against inflation, initially one of its fundamental promises.

The shadow of the Fed looms over the crypto market

The recent correction of bitcoin below $92,500 primarily originates from concerns related to U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, attributes this decline to robust U.S. economic data, which suggests a possible prolonged maintenance of high interest rates.

The crypto markets demonstrate a particularly strong responsiveness to monetary policy outlooks. According to experts, they integrate anticipated rate changes more quickly than traditional assets, acting as an “accelerated beta” of macroeconomic conditions.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently indicates that markets are anticipating an initial rate cut for June 18, 2025, a date that could significantly influence bitcoin’s trajectory in the months to come.

The increasing convergence between cryptos and traditional markets marks a new era for BTC, now more integrated than ever into the global financial system. This evolution, while indicative of its maturity, also makes it more susceptible to macroeconomic turbulence.