Analysts Warn Of Dark Times Ahead For Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been under increasing pressure since the return of the trade war initiated by Donald Trump. While many hoped to see the asset break free from the influence of Wall Street, reality catches up with the markets: the rise in U.S. bond yields is dampening initial enthusiasm.

Bitcoin and Macroeconomics: A Forced Marriage that Persists  

The correlation between bitcoin and the U.S. economy has never been more evident. Despite hopes for financial independence, cryptocurrency remains sensitive to external shocks. 

The recent drop of BTC below $78,000 in reaction to new U.S. tariffs is proof of this. Asian and European markets trembled, dragging bitcoin along in their wake.

Analysts agree: discussing decoupling is premature. Lennix Lai from OKX emphasizes that bitcoin remains deeply integrated into global liquidity conditions.

Even gold, often considered a safe haven, struggles to detach from geopolitical shocks. Cryptocurrency, still perceived as a speculative asset, is severely affected by shifts in market trends.

However, some see an opportunity. Nick Ruck from LVRG Research believes that bitcoin could, in the long run, establish itself as “digital gold” once its intrinsic value is better understood. But for now, market fundamentals – mining taxes, unpredictable regulations – continue to weigh heavily. Speculation dominates, and traders react instantly. 

The Time Bomb of U.S. Interest Rates 

The 10-year Treasury yields have reached 4.5%, an alarming level. This rise reflects a growing distrust in U.S. debt, as well as a tightening of liquidity. For cryptocurrencies, it’s a red flag: when money becomes expensive, investors flee from risk.  

Peter Schiff, an economist known for his anti-Bitcoin stance, has sounded the alarm. According to him, without an immediate turnaround from the Fed, markets could face a crash comparable to 1987. A perspective that chills the blood of holders. Particularly since, as noted by Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst, “when bonds rise and stocks fall, it signifies that financial stress is setting in”.

What to do in such a context? The most optimistic believe that the current crisis could, paradoxically, strengthen bitcoin in the long term. If trade tensions were to ease, cryptocurrency could experience a spectacular rebound.

The hope for a renewed interest in bitcoin is rising with the depreciation of the yuan. For now, however, the market remains under pressure. The storm is brewing, but after the rain comes the sunshine. The signals are concerning, certainly, but the history of bitcoin has already proven its resilience.