Bearish Reversal Of Bitcoin Approaching? Technical Analysis Of November 25, 2024

Bitcoin recorded a decline of 5% after approaching the $100,000 threshold. Let’s now examine the outlook for BTC.

Situation of Bitcoin (BTC) Price

After reaching a peak at $93,400, Bitcoin went through a consolidation phase, which it recently surpassed. This movement allowed Bitcoin to establish a new ATH at $99,661. Interestingly, this price level corresponds to the fourth resistance of the monthly pivot points. Although this threshold was not reached in the spot market, it is important to highlight that Bitcoin futures contracts exceeded the psychological barrier of $100,000. Unfortunately, following this slight consolidation, buying interest was not sustained, leading to a decline of about 6% in its price at the beginning of the last week of November. The cryptocurrency thus fell back below the value zone identified as resistance at $98,400.

At the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price is trading around $93,700. The short-term trend of BTC has turned downwards again. However, its medium and long-term trends remain clearly bullish. This observation is supported by the positioning of the 50 and 200-day moving averages, which remain oriented and crossed upwards. From the bullish momentum side of the cryptocurrency, we observe, through oscillators, a slight weakness, but nothing unusual. Indeed, it is important to recall that Bitcoin recently benefited from a strong bullish momentum, which is often followed by slight corrections, a phenomenon that is quite common.

The current technical analysis has been carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of active self-traders since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content, and support around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTC/USDT)

The open interest of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts has evolved in phase with the price of its underlying asset, reflecting a relatively healthy market, with speculative interest mainly oriented towards buying. These observations are corroborated by a financing rate that remains positive. However, a divergence is observed on the CVD side compared to these indicators, suggesting notable selling interest on market orders. As for liquidations, they remain insignificant but indicate a gradual capitulation of buyers.

The heat map of liquidations of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts highlights significant value zones on either side of its current price. Above, a notable zone appears around $100,000. Below, a larger zone is identified between $92,500 and $90,000, even down to $85,000. Lower down, a zone around $80,000 is notable, although the most important is around $75,000 and $74,000. If the price approaches these levels, this could trigger a large number of orders, thereby increasing the risk of volatility for the cryptocurrency. These zones therefore constitute crucial points of interest for investors.

Forecasts for Bitcoin Price (BTC)

• If the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $91,500, a break of the $98,400 resistance could occur. In this case, the continuation of the bullish movement would allow reaching the last Bitcoin peak at $99,500, thus paving the way for a new ATH. This could be located at $100,000, or even up to the fourth resistance of the pivot points, identified at $108,307, representing an increase of about 15%.

It is important to note that reaching a new all-time high makes it more difficult to identify resistance levels.

• If Bitcoin fails to maintain a level above $91,500, it could find support around $85,000. A prolonged decline could then lead to support around $81,600. Finally, in case of a more pronounced correction, the zone between $78,000 and $75,000 would constitute a key support, whose breach could lead to a drop of about 20%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has recently gone through a consolidation phase and a slight correction after a period of strong progression, indicating a loss of momentum in the short term. Although this may seem concerning, it is important to note that the medium and long-term trends remain clearly bullish, supported by technical indicators. This type of correction, typical of market cycles after significant movements, suggests a potential recovery in a favorable long-term context. It will therefore be crucial to closely monitor price reactions at key levels to validate or adjust the current forecasts. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.