Bayrou: The Republic Is About to Fall!

The French Republic is experiencing a new institutional upheaval with the forced appointment of François Bayrou as Prime Minister. Is the Fifth Republic about to fall? Yes.

Bayrou facing the regime crisis

The morning of December 13, 2024, will go down in political history as the symbol of a regime in full decomposition.

Emmanuel Macron ultimately had to yield to the pressure from the head of MoDem. The sequence of events: at 5 a.m., the president calls François Bayrou to inform him that he will not be Prime Minister, preferring Roland Lescure.

Bayrou’s reaction is immediate : he rushes to the Élysée for a tense 1 hour and 45-minute meeting with the president.

During this confrontation, the centrist leader brandishes the threat of withdrawing the 36 MoDem deputies from the presidential majority. Faced with this political blackmail, Emmanuel Macron ultimately folds, creating a historic precedent: a Prime Minister imposes himself against the initial will of the president.

François Bayrou: expert in political maneuvering

The very personality of François Bayrou raises questions. Presented as a moderate capable of uniting, his political career rather reveals a polarizing figure.

His governmental experience dates back to the 90s, where he was Minister of National Education. Since then, he has maintained his presence on the political scene mainly thanks to his central position and strategic alliances, including his support for Emmanuel Macron in 2017.

His recent acquittal in a parliamentary assistants case in February 2024 allowed him to return to the forefront of the political scene. Previously sidelined at the Planning Commission, Bayrou immediately attempted to resume his frustrated ambitions, specifically targeting Matignon following Élisabeth Borne’s departure.

A parliamentary majority more fragile than ever

The parliamentary base of the new Prime Minister appears particularly narrow. With only 36 MoDem deputies, François Bayrou has a weaker parliamentary support than his predecessor Michel Barnier, who could count on around 45 LR deputies. This numerical fragility is accompanied by major political tensions.

The Socialists have announced their intention not to vote for censure, but this position may evolve if La France Insoumise submits a motion.

The National Rally, while claiming not to want to censure “a priori”, could hardly justify support for Bayrou to its electorate.

Attal against Bayrou

The new Prime Minister must also face opposition within his own presidential camp. Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Le Maire, all of whom nurture presidential ambitions, have no interest in seeing Bayrou succeed.

A success at Matignon could indeed position him as a potential candidate for 2027.

This situation recalls the fate of Michel Barnier, whose brief time at Matignon was undermined by rival ambitions. For Bayrou, the situation appears even more complex as he operates on the same political terrain as his potential competitors.

The end of democracy in France

The appointment of François Bayrou comes in a context of profound crisis of democratic legitimacy. The polls are damning: 77% of French people did not wish for his appointment as Prime Minister.

Even more seriously, nearly two-thirds of French people declare themselves in favor of Emmanuel Macron’s resignation.

This situation creates an institutional paradox: a deeply weakened president continues to exercise sole power over the appointment of the Prime Minister, even as his popular legitimacy is strongly contested. The accelerated succession of Prime Ministers illustrates this growing instability:

• Édouard Philippe: 3 years
• Jean Castex: 2 years
• Élisabeth Borne: 1.5 years
• Gabriel Attal: 6 months
• Michel Barnier: 3 months

This trend toward shorter terms portends a particularly brief duration for the Bayrou government.

Bayrou and the budget challenge

The new Prime Minister must face crucial deadlines in the very short term. The vote on the 2025 budget represents a major test for his ability to build majorities.

Without an approved budget, the operation of the state could be severely disrupted.

François Bayrou has already indicated that immigration and pensions would not be among the government’s priorities. This position seems out of step with the major concerns of the French, risking to further widen the gap between the rulers and the ruled.

Bayrou: like an echo of Wilhelm II

The current situation bears troubling similarities to the end of the German Empire in 1918. At that time, Kaiser Wilhelm II, faced with a deteriorating political situation, appointed Max of Baden as Chancellor in an attempt to parliamentary the regime. A month later, the regime collapsed.

These historical parallels suggest that Bayrou’s appointment could mark not a solution to the crisis, but a new step in the decomposition of the regime of the Fifth Republic.

The Republic will fall

If the Bayrou government were to fall quickly, two scenarios could emerge:

• The use of Article 16 by Emmanuel Macron, already mentioned by some legal experts
• The resignation of the president, pushed by a major social and political crisis

In any case, the appointment of François Bayrou appears less as a solution than as a new symptom of the deep crisis affecting the institutions of the Fifth Republic. Are we at the twilight of the 5th?