Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
Cryptos based on artificial intelligence, long perceived as a revolution in the sector, are currently facing a major crisis. At the beginning of December, their market capitalization reached an impressive peak of $70.4 billion, reflecting investors' enthusiasm for this new technological niche. However, within a few weeks, this valuation has dropped by 28%, now standing at $50.5 billion. This decline is explained both by a general downturn in the crypto markets and by declining interest from investors, hindered by the lack of concrete use cases for AI tokens. Such a correction, while critical for some, fits into a cycle where altcoins could soon regain popularity. Experts remain optimistic about a potential rebound of these assets in 2025, thanks to a more favorable expected environment, particularly with altcoin season.
In a global economic context marked by successive upheavals, few sectors manage to maintain enduring stability. Long perceived as an unsinkable fortress, luxury, the quintessential symbol of prosperity and exclusivity, also faltered in 2024. Indeed, the fortunes of emblematic figures such as Bernard Arnault, Françoise Bettencourt Meyers, and François Pinault suffered colossal losses amounting to over 70 billion dollars combined. Such a decline finds its origins in a set of closely related factors: a slowing Chinese economy, national political tensions, and increased volatility in stock markets. These combined elements have shaken the pillars of the sector, revealing an unexpected fragility.
The US dollar is establishing itself as the leading currency of 2024, dominating the foreign exchange market without competition. While many global economies face challenges such as rapid inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, the greenback is showing its best performance in nearly a decade. This remarkable progress is based on several solid pillars: a robust US economy, attractive bond yields, and a monetary policy skillfully orchestrated by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, there is a global context characterized by the weakening of competing currencies, such as the yen and the euro, which are unable to compete with the supremacy of the dollar. This rise reflects the resilience of the United States but also highlights the economic fractures shaking the rest of the world.
The European Union stands on the brink of a historic change with the impending implementation of the MiCA regulation (Markets in Crypto-Assets), aimed at regulating cryptocurrencies and enhancing transparency in the market. Among the many implications of this regulation, the fate of the USDT stablecoin, issued by Tether, raises significant questions. This token, which holds a central position in crypto transactions worldwide, could be banned or restricted in Europe if authorities deem it does not meet MiCA's requirements. However, as the deadline of December 30, 2024 approaches, no clear directive has been communicated. This situation has led to varied responses among major exchange platforms. For instance, Coinbase has taken the lead by removing USDT from its European services and opts for a conservative approach in the face of regulatory uncertainties. Conversely, major players like Binance and Crypto.com keep the stablecoin accessible, as they bet on future clarifications. This climate of ambiguity reflects the scale of the challenges posed by implementing MiCA and highlights the need for a harmonized framework to avoid disrupting a rapidly growing sector.
China, long seen as the unwavering engine of the global economy, is currently undergoing a major crisis. Years of double-digit growth, which symbolized its rapid ascent, have given way to a period of deep economic uncertainties. The fragility of its economic model, primarily based on investment and exports, is becoming increasingly evident. Issues such as the rise of public and private debts, the collapse of the real estate sector, and the emergence of the specter of deflation are exacerbating internal economic tensions. These dysfunctions raise a fundamental question: after decades of development often described as miraculous, can the Middle Kingdom still sustain its role as a pillar of global growth?
After a period marked by intense fluctuations, Bitcoin seems ready to enter a new decisive phase. Recent data from Binance reveals a steady increase in purchase volumes, a strong signal that fuels hopes for an imminent rebound. This trend comes as the market digests the corrections that occurred after the historical peaks reached this year. In a context where investors' attention remains focused on key indicators, the latest developments confirm the growing interest in the flagship cryptocurrency, reinforcing the idea of an imminent recovery. While these numbers reflect increased buying pressure, they also fit into an economic landscape where signals of recovery alternate with the risks of future corrections. This setup makes Bitcoin a central player in discussions about the outlook for digital markets in 2025.
The real estate market is at the center of concerns in 2025, attracting attention from investors as much as from first-time buyers and economists. This evolution of mortgage rates, a true indicator of economic and financial health, plays a decisive role in this dynamic. Between 2023 and 2024, rates saw a significant decrease. Thus, they dropped from 4.5% to 3.23%, a change that illustrates both the effects of the European Central Bank’s flexible monetary policies and the banks' strategy to stimulate access to property ownership. This decline is not just a simple statistic. It has already increased the borrowing capacity of thousands of households, creating an unprecedented opportunity to revive an already fragile market. In a context marked by increased competition among financial institutions, this trend could intensify in 2025, potentially ushering in a new phase of growth for real estate.
Global trade is going through a period marked by increasing tensions, where diplomacy and economy intertwine in strategic rivalries. Indeed, China's opening of an anti-dumping investigation into European cognac imports signals a new front in the trade conflict with the European Union. This move, perceived as a direct response to European accusations against Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles, reflects an escalation of economic retaliations between two major powers. Such a case goes beyond a mere trade dispute. It raises fundamental questions about the balance of international exchanges and the role of institutions like the World Trade Organization in arbitrating these disputes in an increasingly complex rivalry context.
The performance of Bitcoin, often seen as a barometer for the entire crypto sector, reveals a paradox this year. Indeed, the price of the flagship asset has risen by 128% over a twelve-month period, reaching levels reminiscent of its glory days. However, this exceptional momentum does not seem to benefit mining companies, whose stocks have seen dramatic declines. This situation indicates a disconnect between the soaring Bitcoin price and the stock performance of mining firms. Investors and analysts are questioning: what are the factors behind this divergence? While Bitcoin continues to attract attention with its resilience and the growing enthusiasm for ETFs and institutional purchases, mining companies face major structural challenges, notably related to energy costs, regulatory pressures, and operational inefficiencies.
The BRICS are ushering in a new economic era with a historic expansion planned for January 2025. This group, which unites some of the largest emerging economies, is set to welcome nine new partners, marking a decisive step in its quest for strengthening its position on the international stage. Such a move comes at a time when geopolitical rivalries are intensifying and traditional alliances are being questioned. Through the extension of their geographical and strategic reach, the BRICS aim to consolidate their influence, but also to provide a credible alternative to Western-dominated economic models. This shift reflects a reorganization of global economic powers, in response to growing demands for a more balanced and multipolar system.
At the dawn of 2025, Ethereum is poised to undergo a major transformation that could redefine its role within the crypto ecosystem. Following a lackluster performance in 2024, the signs of a resurgence are intensifying. Experts emphasize the decisive impact of several technical innovations and a rapidly evolving regulatory context, all of which could propel Ethereum into a new era of dominance. Driven by ambitious updates like Pectra, the network aims to overcome its current scalability limitations and enhance user experience through advancements in interoperability and account abstraction. Additionally, the arrival of a pro-crypto administration in the United States, along with the growing adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and AI-based smart agents, opens up unprecedented opportunities. In this context, Ethereum could become the central engine of a rapidly changing ecosystem that attracts investors, institutions, and developers.
Global economic uncertainties are forcing institutions to thoroughly rethink their investment strategies. In this context, decentralized finance (DeFi) is emerging as a credible and visionary alternative for reinventing traditional financial models. In recent years, major advancements have transformed DeFi into a sophisticated ecosystem, far beyond early technological experiments. Thus, the development of bitcoin staking, the tokenization of real assets, and the integration of autonomous artificial intelligences herald a new era for this rapidly expanding sector.
China is at a pivotal economic turning point. As the combined effects of weak consumption, an intensified real estate crisis, and high unemployment hinder its development, Beijing has just announced an ambitious budget policy for 2025. The stated objective is clear: to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize an economy under significant pressure. To achieve these ambitions, the government plans a significant increase in public spending, coupled with a revision of its fiscal priorities. These measures, detailed during a national conference, reflect a firm commitment to support local communities, expand social benefits, and strengthen resources for struggling businesses. Such a strategy, centered around innovation and strategic technologies, also aims to revitalize trade exchanges in order to adapt debt rules. With this comprehensive approach, Beijing intends to lay the groundwork for more resilient economic growth and to address the structural challenges that hinder its trajectory.
The crypto market, characterized by sustained volatility, continues to surprise with the failure of predictions. While massive sell-offs have dominated trading in recent days, a report published by CoinShares highlights a singular phenomenon: institutional investors have significantly increased their positions in crypto products. Indeed, with net inflows reaching $308 million in a week, these investments sharply contrast with the general downward trend. This institutional support, although counterintuitive in an environment of strong economic pressure, reflects a strategic confidence in the potential of cryptos. Concurrently, the data reveals marked divergences among products, reflecting a reconfiguration of investment priorities. This dynamic paves the way for an in-depth analysis of the motivations of institutions and their implications for the future of crypto markets.
The world of crypto could experience a historic change with Donald Trump's return to the White House. Indeed, the elected president, already known for his divisive stances, has placed crypto at the heart of his economic priorities. He aims to propel the United States to the status of a global leader in this rapidly expanding sector. Among his promises are the creation of a strategic reserve of bitcoins and the establishment of policies favorable to crypto businesses. These initiatives, which demonstrate a desire for a break from the previous administration, evoke a mix of hope and skepticism within the industry. While his supporters praise a bold vision for the future of crypto, observers remind us of the many obstacles that will arise in the realization of these projects, whether political, economic, or regulatory. Donald Trump's next term could thus mark a decisive turning point in the evolution of cryptocurrencies in the United States and on the international stage.
