Are Bitcoin ETFs a Disappointment? VanEck's Gabor Gurbacs Eases Minds

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are at the heart of discussions lately. While some speculations revolve around a rejection or approval of these new financial products, others focus on the impact of trackers on BTC from a financial perspective. Indeed, more and more analysts do not dismiss the theory of a migration of fresh capital into the market after the SEC’s green light. Gabor Gurbacs, an advisor at VanEck, provides some clarification on this topic.

Bitcoin ETFs and Their Trillions of Dollars

The SEC could deliver its response regarding the cash ETFs on bitcoin between January 5th and 10th, some analysts believe. But a recent report from Reuters suggested that as early as tomorrow Tuesday, or Wednesday, Gary Gensler’s team will make a decision on this matter.

The countdown has thus begun.

Many may be disappointed by the “initial impact” of a spot Bitcoin ETF, says VanEck adviser @gaborgurbacs. However, if gold ETFs are any indication, there’s no need to worry. https://t.co/ngXvD2EQDT

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 1, 2024

In its analysis, Cointelegraph highlighted the absence of immediate positive impacts of Bitcoin ETFs on the cryptocurrency market. According to G. Gurbacs, the trillions of dollars will take much longer to show up.

Here is a post he shared on December 31st on X (Twitter):

“In my view, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. I think maybe a few $100mm flows (mostly recycled) money. Long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel.”

A prediction that is close to the 70.5 billion in net inflows suggested by Glassnode last November, in fact.

Gold, a Model for Bitcoin?

Gold, as a readily tradable store of value, is often referred to by bitcoin analysts. The comparison of these two assets in terms of market capitalization and as the best antidote against inflation has already sparked debate in the Cointribe in 2021.

Between gold and BTC, the choice seems difficult for some traders: in most cases, some financial advisors like Robert Kiyosaki suggest the combination of the two.

For Gabor Gurbacs, the breakthrough of gold-linked ETFs can serve as a basis to analyze the evolution of spot ETFs linked to bitcoin.

“On November 18, 2004, the SPDR (State Street) Gold ETF (GLD) was launched. Over the following eight years, the price of gold quadrupled, going from 400 to 1,800 dollars, which increased the market capitalization by about 8 trillion dollars, going from 2 trillion to 10 trillion dollars. The bitcoin market capitalization is currently 750 billion dollars, less than one-third of gold’s in 2004. In my opinion, as soon as a cash-based Bitcoin ETF is approved in the United States, the price trajectory could follow the pattern of gold in 2004 and subsequent years, but much more quickly,” he tweeted in early December.

However, spot Bitcoin ETFs represent traps for the queen of cryptocurrencies, according to Arthur Hayes.