April Could Be Decisive For XRP’s Bearish Trajectory

As the crypto market seeks a new breath after a dynamic start to the year, XRP is sinking into a downward spiral. Ripple’s asset has already lost more than 35 % since its January peak, and technical indicators point to a possible worsening. An unfavorable graphic setup could lead to an additional retreat of 25% this month. In this climate of uncertainty, XRP appears to be one of the most weakened assets at the moment, exposed to increasing selling pressure and a disengagement from major investors.

A graphic structure that raises concerns

Since its high of $3.40 in January, XRP has lost more than a third of its value. However, this decline may not be over.

The graphic configuration of XRP draws the attention of analysts: a so-called “inverse cup with handle” formation is starting to take shape, indicating a potentially marked downward trend.

This figure, observed on the daily chart of the XRP/USDT pair, anticipates a drop of around 25% in the short term. Such a technical pattern, well-known to traders, generally indicates a loss of buying momentum after an extended bullish period.

In this case, the peak of the “inverse cup” would have been reached around March 19, followed by a lateral consolidation phase between $2.05 and $2.20, the “handle” of the pattern. If the price were to break this support zone, the projected decline could drive the price down to $1.58, representing another drop of over 25 %.

This configuration is supported by several specific technical elements:

• The “inverse cup with handle” figure, generally associated with bearish trend reversals ;
• A resistance level at $0.60, which acts as a ceiling blocking any attempt at recovery ;
• The support base around $0.55 already tested several times, without success ;
• An estimated technical target of $0.41, representing an additional pullback of about 25 % from current levels.

At this stage, the technical indicators paint a rather bleak picture for XRP. The market seems suspended at a critical zone, and any break below the current support could trigger a more pronounced selling movement.

Whales disengage : a market without institutional support

Beyond purely technical considerations, another dynamic reinforces the downward pressure on XRP: that of the flows observed from the side of the whales, these institutional or wealthy investors who hold significant volumes of tokens.

According to CryptoQuant data, “whale activity has become heavily negative, indicating that large crypto investors have taken advantage of the price increases to distribute their positions and sell at local peaks.”

In plain terms, large holders have seized the late 2024 rise to reduce their exposure, and this trend continues at the start of the year. The 90-day moving average of whale flows remains firmly in negative territory, confirming a prolonged distribution movement.

This behavior reflects a lack of institutional conviction around XRP in the short term. The divergence between prices that were rising at the end of last year and net capital outflows from whales suggests a growing distrust in the sustainability of the rally.

In the absence of significant accumulation returns, this disconnection weakens the market structure and increases the risk of a pullback. This disengagement occurs in a macroeconomic climate that is not favorable to risky assets.

The global tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, along with the slightly restrictive reaction from the Federal Reserve, have further deteriorated the appetite for risk. A combination of factors that adds pressure on the entire crypto market, including XRP.

The immediate future of XRP will therefore depend on the token’s ability to regain the support of its major investors and to reintegrate into a more constructive technical dynamic. Otherwise, the prospect of a return to $1.58 could materialize much faster than expected, further deepening the disenchantment around an asset that has long been viewed as a serious alternative to the giants of the crypto sector.