An XRP ETF This Year? Polymarket Estimates The Chances At 85%

When justice settles a long-standing conflict, the markets do not wait to draw their conclusions. Thus, the end of the duel between Ripple and the SEC goes beyond the judicial framework: it reshapes the future of XRP. As regulatory uncertainty fades, a new dynamic emerges. Predictive markets are already buzzing: is an XRP ETF now inevitable? With influential players scanning for any opportunity, Ripple might well see a door long shut open. But is the SEC ready to cross this threshold?

The SEC lets go, Ripple emerges strengthened

On March 19, 2025, Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, put an end to years of regulatory uncertainty and announced on X that “the SEC is abandoning its appeal.”.

This withdrawal marks the definitive conclusion of the trial that began in December 2020, in which the Securities and Exchange Commission accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through XRP sales considered as unregistered securities offerings.

After more than four years of legal battle, the American stock market regulator is therefore giving up any attempt at prosecution.

Despite the historical significance of this outcome for the crypto industry, the market reacted only very moderately. XRP recorded only a 5% increase in the days following the announcement, moving from $2.32 to $2.44 according to CoinGecko.

This relative inertia is explained, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, an analyst at Nansen, by the fact that “the resolution of the conflict was largely anticipated.” Several factors indeed suggest that this news was already “priced in” by the markets:

• The decision by Judge Analisa Torres in July 2023 had already partly ruled in favor of Ripple, reducing the legal uncertainty around XRP.
• Ripple had won several intermediate procedural victories that had altered the balance of power with the SEC.
• Exchanges had gradually re-evaluated XRP since 2023, anticipating a favorable end to the trial.
• Institutional investors had begun to consider the asset eligible for certain investment strategies.

Thus, while the SEC’s withdrawal ends a judicial sequence with significant consequences, it has not been enough to create a strong impulse in the crypto market. Attention is now turning to the longer-term implications of this resolution, as highlighted by the limited impact of the end of the Ripple trial.

The hypothesis of an XRP ETF is settling in minds

Following the SEC’s withdrawal of the appeal, Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, stated on March 26, 2025, on platform X (formerly Twitter) that it was “clear that an XRP ETF will eventually be approved by the SEC.” He believes that it is now just a “matter of time.”

This position, coming from a recognized player in the index fund world, has reinforced the legitimacy of a scenario previously perceived as speculative. Geraci also mentioned the possibility that major asset managers like BlackRock or Fidelity might position themselves on this future product and suggested a potential large-scale institutional alignment.

At the same time, Polymarket users have significantly raised their expectations. According to current data, the probability of an XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025 stands at 85%, whereas they only see a 42% chance of it being validated before July 31, reflecting the evolution of expectations on Polymarket.

This measured but growing confidence reflects an optimistic reading of the regulatory dynamics post-trial while considering the usual delays in the SEC’s approval processes.

Such a development fuels new speculation about XRP’s positioning within the institutional crypto ecosystem. The approval of an ETF could pave the way for broader access for traditional investors and further legitimize the asset in a U.S. context still largely hostile to altcoins. If this trend is confirmed, it could redefine the architecture of the crypto market in the coming months, as shown by the SEC’s postponement of the ETF XRP decision.