An Analyst Predicts A Bitcoin Rebound Within 3 Months

Bitcoin is wavering, down more than 20% from its all-time high, reigniting fears of a sharp reversal. However, some see it as just a pause in an ongoing cycle. For Timothy Peterson, this decline remains moderate compared to previous bear markets and fits into a classic phase of consolidation rather than a structural collapse.

Temporary Retreat: A Controlled “Bear Market”?

According to Timothy Peterson, analyst at Cane Island Alternative Advisors and author of “Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value“, the current decline of Bitcoin is nothing exceptional when looking at market history.

He describes it as a normal phase within a classic crypto cycle. Indeed, “only four bear markets have been more severe than the current decline in terms of duration: those of 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024“, he notes in a post on the social network X (formerly Twitter) on March 22, 2025, before adding that such retreats generally occur once a year.

His projections rely on several key points:

• The average anticipated duration of the correction: 90 days at most;
• The risk of a collapse below $50,000: considered very low given the increasing adoption and institutional support;
• The probability of a fall below $80,000: also low, according to observed trends;
• A market forecast: a potential drop in the next 30 days, followed by a rally of 20 to 40% starting April 15, consistent with previous cycles, particularly around “day 120”.

If this analysis proves correct, it could reactivate the speculative appetite of some short-term investors. The bullish momentum post-April, if it occurs, could serve as a catalyst for new momentum.

But at this stage, macroeconomic conditions and the absence of new capital remain obstacles to a significant reversal. Thus, the scenario of a spring rebound relies on a precarious balance between technical confidence and external triggers.

The Weight of Macroeconomic Tensions on Market Sentiment

Beyond technical analysis, other signals weigh on market morale. In the background, trade tensions triggered by President Trump’s recent tariff policies have rekindled fears of a global slowdown.

These announcements led to a simultaneous drop in Bitcoin and other risky assets, which temporarily undermined the narrative of Bitcoin as a “safe haven”.

“Investor appetite for speculative assets is waning due to the trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty“, confirms Nicolai Sondergaard, analyst at Nansen.

This disengagement is reflected in on-chain data. Glassnode’s latest report shows that “Hot Supply” (the proportion of BTC held for less than a week) has dropped from 5.9% in November 2024 to just 2.3% on March 20, 2025.

Meanwhile, a study by CryptoQuant highlights that the majority of retail investors are already in Bitcoin, which reduces hopes for an influx of new capital in the short term. This context limits the prospects for an immediate rebound, despite hopes for a potential rally post-April.

Far from a mere technical movement, this phase of retreat informs on the market’s persistent fragility in the face of external shocks. If Timothy Peterson’s projections materialize, the market could find a certain balance by early summer. But in the absence of favorable macroeconomic signals or renewed momentum, Bitcoin is likely to remain under pressure. It remains to be seen whether the current resistance constitutes a solid base for a new bullish phase, or simply a temporary lull before further turbulence.