About 4 years of dictatorship starting from November?

The election of Donald Trump in November could plunge America into bloody internal chaos. He is preparing to make total war on American institutions: from the military to justice! Are we heading towards an American dictatorship?

Trump Condemned

A few days ago, Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 offenses in New York. All the charges are related to the falsification of business documents. Essentially, Donald Trump slept with a porn star, asked his lawyer to pay the porn star to keep quiet, and then presented the payments as legal fees to keep the matter hushed up. After the sentencing, Mr. Trump will begin a lengthy appeal process.

This may seem like a minor crime, but the state of New York takes it seriously; it is quite common to be prosecuted for this offense. There is also no doubt that Trump committed this crime.

Trump Disliked

On the other hand, Trump’s supporters are probably right to say that the vigor and zeal with which prosecutors pursued the case were likely due, at least in part, to the fact that Trump is a prominent politician they dislike.

Prosecutors have a lot of discretion in choosing which cases to pursue, and it is hard to believe that Trump’s notoriety did not make him a bigger target. This is a common phenomenon in democratic countries.

In 2016, Trump and his supporters pushed for Hillary Clinton to be prosecuted for using a public email server for private purposes and/or for allegedly abusing her charitable foundation for private purposes.

Trump supporters chanting “Lock her up!” clearly wanted exactly the kind of politically motivated prosecutions they now accuse Trump’s opponents of organizing.

Trump, Soon to be Imprisoned?

In addition to Trump’s conviction and appeal, this is only one of the four cases for which he is indicted, in four different courts:

• He is being prosecuted in Florida for mishandling government records
• He is being prosecuted in Washington for conspiracy to obstruct the transfer of power after the 2020 election.
• He is being prosecuted in Georgia for racketeering to overturn the results of the 2020 election in that state.

The last two charges are very serious, much more serious than the mishandling of government records or hush payments for which Trump has just been found guilty.

The rumor is that the evidence against Trump is stronger in these three other cases than in the one for which he has just been found guilty. Therefore, we should expect many more cases of this kind.

The Fall of Nixon

As a reminder, the Watergate scandal eventually forced Richard Nixon to resign. It was an event that was religiously followed by supporters glued to their television sets day after day, but which most Americans simply ignored.

The United States has just endured a decade of social and political turmoil. They have had the “woke” movement, the alt-right, BLM, MeToo.

They have had Trump 2016, Bernie vs. Hillary, Charlottesville, the Kavanaugh affair, Covid, George Floyd, the riots, January 6th.

America is therefore tired.

In 1973, Americans were also very tired. They had just endured nine years of riots, anti-war protests, assassinations, sexual revolution, rising crime, etc.

And yet, without Nixon’s resignation, it is uncertain whether the Reagan revolution would have occurred. By 1980, the Watergate affair was practically forgotten – a minor issue that the nation had agreed to leave behind.

The most controversial president of the mid-20th century, who stirred so much protest from all sides, had been relegated to a footnote. The forgetting of the bitter division surrounding Nixon allowed Ronald Reagan to be a largely unifying force in American society, an agent of recovery after exhaustion.

This is how conservatives dominated American politics for decades.

Towards a Conservative Revolution

It is not yet certain that Trump’s indictments and convictions will have a major effect on the 2024 election.

It is also possible that Trump’s convictions – especially if he is found guilty of some of the most serious crimes for which he is being prosecuted – will lead many of his supporters to disengage from politics and give the election to Biden.

Polls show that Trump’s supporters already tend to be less interested in politics than Biden’s supporters, on average. The convictions could reinforce this perception.

But ironically, if the legal prosecutions manage to make Trump disappear from the public eye in the same way that Watergate made Nixon disappear, it will contribute greatly to ushering in a new conservative revolution in America.

There are many reasons why Americans are ready for an era of more conservative governance and social attitudes.

Towards 4 Years of Chaos?

Regardless of politics, it is very clear that Trump is devoting most of his energy to fighting against American institutions that he sees as rivals for power.

First, there would be ongoing trials. Sitting presidents enjoy legal immunity for acts they committed as president, but it is not certain they enjoy immunity for acts committed outside the presidency.

This would surely be the subject of bitter, public, and prolonged legal battles.

As president, Trump will most certainly try to pardon himself for all crimes – something he has already openly mentioned several times.

If the Supreme Court allowed such a pardon, it would mean that the president is effectively above the law; he can kill someone in the street and pardon himself for it.

This would likely undermine confidence in the Supreme Court and raise serious questions about whether the president is not simply an elected dictator.

Will the United States Become a Dictatorship?

But a self-pardon would not even solve all of Trump’s legal problems. Presidents can only grant pardons for federal crimes, and many of Trump’s indictments concern state crimes.

To get out of it, it would probably require another Supreme Court decision stating that the president is immune from state prosecutions.

But if the Supreme Court allowed Trump’s convictions to stand, Trump would almost certainly cause a constitutional crisis in response, either by defying the Court or by attempting to use presidential power to weaken it.

And more generally, Trump would respond to the prosecutions with a massive public pressure campaign against the American legal system, similar to his “Stop the Steal” campaign against the electoral system.

Trump, the American Pariah?

The fact that one of the two men likely to be president next year is now a convicted criminal opens up the possibility that the very judicial institutions that guarantee the rule of law will be the target of the fiercest political attack in American history.

We can expect Trump to use the Republican Party for the rest of the campaign to destroy the judiciary system.

All this, in turn, will trigger outrage from everyone on the left of the political spectrum. Internal battles over Palestine will be forgotten, as half the nation will unify and redirect towards the fight against a dictatorial presidency.

There will be marches in the streets, perhaps even riots. There will certainly be a widespread attempt to use all remaining institutional power to oust Trump from his perch.

It would be like if Nixon had refused to resign, had been impeached and convicted, and refused to leave office, while still retaining a small majority of popular support. History rhymes, but there are no guarantees it will repeat.

Will Trump Weaken the United States?

Remember that while all this is happening, China and Russia are watching everything that’s happening here and waiting with bated breath.

If the United States sinks into internal chaos for four years, Asia will likely be subjected to the Chinese Communist Party, while Europe will have to fend for itself against a Russia-backed empire supported by China. When the United States finally emerges from this chaos, they will face a world largely dominated by their enemies, which will have serious consequences for the rest of this century.