A 40% Increase In Sight? Bitcoin Is Reproducing A Historical Pattern

Bitcoin, proudly displaying a price above $105,000, seems eager to prove it still has more power under the hood. However, its legendary volatility keeps it constantly on a roller coaster, preventing any lasting stabilization. Between tightening margins and increased volatility potential, on-chain analysis may predict an explosive rebound. Let’s decode this explosive cocktail where technique and instinct intersect in the crypto market.

Bitcoin: a price range that intrigues

For the past two months, the Bitcoin price has fluctuated between $90,000 and $110,000, a variation of only 19%. According to Glassnode, such a tightening of fluctuations has only been observed five times since 2019. And each time, it signaled a significant movement.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1882391897408479276

In October 2023, a similar range led to a 40% increase over two months. If history repeats itself, investors might witness a similar scenario.

Currently, nearly 20% of circulating bitcoins have an acquisition cost close to the spot price. This concentration further tightens the elasticity of volatility.

Some key facts:

• In December 2023, Bitcoin rose from $30,000 to $42,000;
• The Bollinger Bands, used by traders, indicate sleeping volatility;
• The last tightening of the bands was in January 2024, a precursor to major shocks.

https://twitter.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1878222965633937783

For Matthew Hyland, a renowned analyst, “The Bollinger Bands over three days are the tightest since last January.”

This apparent calm may hide a storm in the crypto market.

Crypto Trading: a domino effect to come?

The technical data is not enough to explain the feverish anticipation of investors. According to Glassnode:

“When supply is concentrated around a given price, small movements can cause significant waves.”

With fluctuating investor profitability, the domino effect could transform slight adjustments into a market hurricane.

Other indicators support this hypothesis. In January 2025, the margin tightening reached record levels, signaling an imminent breakout potential. The Bollinger Bands and on-chain analysis predict a decisive movement on the horizon, whether towards a peak or an abyssal plunge.

Experienced traders are now juggling between strategy and instinct. Should one accumulate or reduce risks? The answer lies in the upcoming jolts of an always unpredictable crypto market. One thing is for sure, patience is a valuable quality in this tense climate.

Moreover, according to Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, $700,000 per bitcoin is conceivable as soon as the macroeconomic conditions he mentioned in Davos are met. In the meantime, the crypto market remains a terrain of boldness.