$97K Bitcoin Rally Faces Doubts from Cautious Investors

The cryptocurrency market is once again heating up, with a bitcoin surpassing $97,000 after a brief correction below $95,000. This new rally, far from being trivial, occurs as institutional and individual data indicate a weakening of demand. While this asset seems to evolve independently of the fundamentals associated with cryptos, it is actually caught up in an uncertain macroeconomic context. As trade tensions between the United States and China fuel market nervousness, bitcoin continues to attract attention. Investment flows, sentiment indicators, and the structure of derivatives products testify to increasing caution.

A rebound above $97,000, driven by economic tensions

The bitcoin has experienced increased volatility in recent days. Thus, the crypto oscillated below $95,000 before rebounding beyond $97,000. A trigger for this was the announcement of new Chinese taxes on American energy imports, notably on crude oil and liquefied natural gas. This decision immediately caused bitcoin to drop, reflecting a broader trend of fleeing to perceived safer assets amid trade tensions.

However, the market quickly reacted, regaining confidence after Donald Trump’s response, who imposed a 25% tax on steel and aluminum. This political response stabilized traditional markets, but also allowed bitcoin to regain support above $97,000. Despite this rebound, signals of institutional weakness and those from individual investors persist.

Data shows that institutional buying volumes are not keeping pace with this rise. Between February 3 and 7, the Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded inflows of only $204 million, a modest sum compared to the $742.3 million of bitcoin acquired by Strategy during the same period. Furthermore, the premiums on futures contracts have sharply declined, dropping from 11 % in early February to 8 % currently, a clear indicator that leveraged traders are reducing their exposure.

Investors facing increasing economic uncertainty

If institutional demand is waning, it is not so much due to a lack of interest in bitcoin, but rather because of a complex macroeconomic environment. Several factors contribute to this caution. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen to 4.50 %, down from 4.78 % a month ago, a sign that investors are favoring safe havens. This dynamic has strengthened the U.S. dollar, with a DXY index at 108.30 on February 10, reflecting a rise in risk aversion in global markets.

At the same time, Moody’s has warned of a potential downgrade of the World Bank’s credit rating, which fuels fears of long-term financial repercussions. This announcement comes as the U.S. government reviews its commitment to development banks, increasing uncertainty further.

Such caution is also evident on the consumer side. McDonald’s reported a 1.4 % decline in U.S. sales in the fourth quarter, a signal that fuels fears of an economic slowdown. In the face of these uncertainties, many investors are turning to cash, looking to reduce their exposure to risky assets, including bitcoin.

Despite weakening demand from institutional players, bitcoin remains at the center of many regulatory initiatives in the United States, with several states considering building BTC reserves. This phenomenon could initiate a gradual accumulation, which would reinforce bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset. Signals of a potential rally beyond $100,000 should not be excluded. The current caution may well just be a temporary adjustment before a new phase of accumulation, especially if the regulatory and macroeconomic environment evolves favorably.