$20M Trump Bet : A French Trader’s Record Win on Polymarket

In the ruthless universe of decentralized prediction markets, the French crypto trader, known by the pseudonym “Theo4,” has made history with a profit of over 20 million dollars by betting on the victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The Trump Whales and the Colossal Gains

During the 2024 presidential election, a French trader operating under multiple pseudonyms saw his stake turn into a fortune on Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized prediction market. Indeed, the biggest winner, identified under the pseudonyms “Theo4” and “Fredi9999,” raked in over 20 million dollars thanks to his pro-Trump actions, according to data analyzed by the crypto firm Lookonchain and published on November 6. Alongside him, investors like “zxgngl” also benefited from this momentum, with equally staggering gains.

Together, these bettors injected over 70 million dollars in USD Coin (USDC) to strengthen Trump’s chances on the platform.

Polymarket allowed these crypto whales to invest massively in pro-Trump “shares,” which inflated his odds as the bets increased. On a key date, October 18, the main account of Fredi9999 bought over 20 million dollars in “Yes shares,” propelling Trump’s victory odds to 60.2 %. Ten days later, this probability climbed to 66 % thanks to an additional investment of 7.22 million dollars from zxgngl. The concentration strategy of the whales peaked with over 50 % of the pro-Trump shares in the hands of five anonymous bettors, indicating exceptional confidence in Trump’s victory.

The Impact and Concentration Strategies on Polymarket

The pro-Trump actions were concentrated among five accounts, including “The Giga Whale.” These accounts held nearly half of the 162 million “Yes shares.” The most prominent investor, “The Giga Whale,” owned almost a third of these shares, a testament to the level of confidence given to Trump’s victory, far beyond the ordinary means of small bettors. In comparison, pro-Kamala Harris shares were far more dispersed, with an equitable distribution among investors.

Behind this concentration of bets lies a sophisticated financial strategy, suggesting that some of these bettors might be linked to each other or even belong to the same group. For some investors, “at least four of the six largest pro-Trump bettors, including accounts zxgngl and Fredi9999, could be controlled by a single wealthy individual convinced of Trump’s victory.” Such a belief, amplified by the lack of strict regulation on decentralized prediction markets, grants increased influence to these whales on Polymarket.

The success of these influential bettors on Polymarket is not an individual feat but an example of the financial and political forecasting capabilities offered by decentralized markets. While traditional polls have often proven uncertain, these platforms allow those who are willing to invest significant amounts to influence market trends. In parallel, Trump’s victory could have implications for the crypto sector in the United States, as regulation of such predictive platforms remains pending. This scenario sheds further light on the rising power of crypto whales in political and financial decisions and their impact on the future of decentralized finance.