$11.8 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms : What's At Stake ?

As the end of the year approaches, a significant event could transform the Bitcoin ecosystem and intensify debates about its future: the imminent expiration of nearly $11.8 billion in Bitcoin options. Scheduled for December 27, this deadline could provoke spectacular movements in the markets, with the stated goal of pushing Bitcoin past the symbolic threshold of $100,000. However, while call options, which are largely dominant, signal marked optimism, tension remains palpable between bullish and bearish investors, each keen to position their influence ahead of this critical deadline.

A Booming Bitcoin Options Market

Bitcoin options, with their scheduled expiration on December 27, are currently crystallizing investors’ attention, which represents a potential change for the crypto market. Indeed, with a notable 29 % increase in Bitcoin since October, call options dominate, totaling $7.9 billion, while put options amount to $3.92 billion. This gap shows a clear predominance of bullish expectations. Deribit, a leading platform in this field with 74 % market share, is followed by CME and Binance, each holding 10.3 %, confirming a solidly established market distribution. Bulls are in a strong position, but volatility remains a risk until the expiration date.

As the December 27 date approaches, the influence of these options on the price of Bitcoin becomes increasingly palpable. If Bitcoin remains around $90,000 at the time of expiration, only $96 million in put options will remain active, while others will become inactive above this threshold. This configuration reflects increasing pressure to keep the price high, as selling positions thus lose their influence in favor of buyers, enhancing Bitcoin’s bullish potential for the end of the year.

Towards Ambitious Yet Uncertain Price Scenarios

In this tense environment, several price scenarios are emerging, each influenced by the current options structure. If Bitcoin sits between $75,000 and $80,000 at expiration, call options would far surpass puts, with a value of $1.85 billion, leaving bullish investors with a significant advantage. With a threshold between $85,000 and $90,000, the difference between call and put options would be even more pronounced, with $3.28 billion in favor of the bulls. This imbalance between call and put options shows strong bullish anticipation.

However, the potential impact of bearish strategic choices cannot be overlooked. They may try to keep Bitcoin below $75,000 to limit their losses, while optimistic investors seek to push the price above $90,000 to maximize their gains. Beyond the immediate stakes, this expiration could set new milestones for Bitcoin in 2025, especially as the U.S. regulatory environment evolves with the arrival of new pro-crypto political figures. This situation opens perspectives that could reinforce Bitcoin’s role in the global economic landscape, with potential consequences for institutions’ and long-term investors’ strategies.

The expiration of these Bitcoin options at the year’s end could thus serve as a major catalyst, influencing both the immediate price of the asset and its trajectory for the months ahead. While bulls view this expiration as a unique opportunity to surpass the symbolic mark of $100,000, bears are doubling down their efforts to limit the ascent and protect their positions. If this positioning battle intensifies as the deadline approaches, the fallout from this event could ripple beyond December and set new standards for Bitcoin investment.