$100K Milestone : Catalyst Or Illusion For Bitcoin ?

Bitcoin continues to fascinate, surprise, defy expectations, and test the psychological limits of the market. Just a few cables away from the symbolic threshold of $100,000, the leading crypto records a record weekly close, consolidating its position in a context of increased volatility. This figure, more than ever at the center of discussions, raises questions: is it merely a milestone or a true market catalyst?

The figures of a historic week

After a volatility marked by a brief but spectacular drop to $95,800 on Sunday, November 24, 2024, Bitcoin closed the week at a record high of $98,000. This movement triggered massive liquidations totaling $500 million in a market characterized by low liquidity. The threshold of $98,500 is a key point to reclaim in order to consolidate the bullish trend. This observation further informs about the importance of liquidity movements in the evolution of Bitcoin’s price.

In parallel, data shows that futures contracts for Bitcoin from CME Group indicate a concentration of liquidity just below $100,000. Some specialists, such as Aksel Kibar, Accredited Market Technician and CEO of Tech Charts LLC, minimize the importance of this threshold, calling it a “mere collection of numbers on a screen.” He points to higher technical levels, such as $140,000. These elements suggest that, despite the attention given to the threshold of $100,000, more ambitious targets could already be structuring investors’ strategies.

Record profits and implications for the market

Long-term holders, often called “diamond hands”, have been particularly active this week. Thus, data from CryptoQuant reveals realized profits reaching a historic peak of $443 million in a single day. Moreover, “unrealized profit levels remain at 57 %, reflecting a strong appetite for taking profits,” indicates Maartunn, an analyst at CryptoQuant. Furthermore, short-term holders also seem to have benefited from this dynamics, which could signal a slowdown in the surge.

This frenzy of sales is tempered by the massive influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, with net inflows of $7 billion in November. Indeed, institutional movements, which have just recorded a record week, provide a significant counterweight to selling pressures. Glassnode emphasizes that “ETFs have the potential to neutralize the effects of profit-taking, thus creating a solid foundation for a recovery above $100,000.”

As Bitcoin approaches a key psychological milestone, the market oscillates between optimism and caution. Institutional flows and record profits realized by long-term holders demonstrate a transforming market. While a correction could strengthen the market structure, breaking through the $100,000 mark, accompanied by a possible pursuit towards $140,000, would mark a historic milestone. In a context of increased volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty, the coming days could well redefine the dynamics of this already extraordinary market.