Bitcoin Wobbles, But 5 Key Reasons Make It Appealing This Month

October starts on a lukewarm note for bitcoin, which, at $63,110, struggles to initiate the much-anticipated “Uptober” rally. Yet, despite this calm, bullish prospects are not lacking. Indeed, macroeconomic factors and market trends suggest that bitcoin could hold surprises for investors this month. Let’s explore the five reasons why October might well be a strategic period for buying Bitcoin.

External factors: Trump, China, and interest rates

Recent polls place Donald Trump at the forefront of the 2024 U.S. elections, with a 54.1% chance of victory.

Trump has already positioned himself favorably towards cryptocurrencies, and his return to power could transform the landscape for bitcoin. According to analysts at Bernstein, if Trump wins the election, bitcoin could reach $90,000, a figure that would make many an investor dream.

This political support would provide a significant boost, especially in a context where crypto regulation in the United States is closely monitored.

The Chinese government, according to sources such as CNBC, is preparing to inject between $282.8 and $424.2 billion into the economy to stimulate growth.

Such a stimulus plan could indirectly benefit bitcoin, particularly if Chinese investors, encouraged by monetary easing, allocate part of their funds to cryptocurrencies.

Such actions could strengthen Bitcoin demand, driving up prices. Indeed, China’s impact on the market is well known; it has already proven its influence in major Bitcoin fluctuations.

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve has recently reduced expectations for rate cuts from 50 basis points, a 25-point reduction remains plausible.

A decrease in interest rates would increase liquidity, encouraging some investors to take more risks and turn to assets like Bitcoin.

In this context, every Fed announcement becomes crucial: the slightest nuance in speeches about rates can have a significant effect on Bitcoin volatility.

Bitcoin market-specific developments

The Bitcoin halving mechanism remains a major catalyst for its price. Historically, bitcoin tends to experience significant increases about 150 to 170 days after this event.

With last April’s halving, many anticipate a new wave of increases. The renowned trader Peter Brandt even estimates that BTC could reach $135,000 in the coming months.

This forecast, though bold, fits into a pattern observed during previous halvings, where Bitcoin’s limited supply drives up demand.

October is known to be one of the most successful months for Bitcoin, with average gains often exceeding 20%. Despite a hesitant start, previous Octobers have seen unexpected rallies propel BTC to new heights.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin could surpass its record level of $73,000 and reach new highs. The crypto market has this ability to surprise, and investors are closely watching for signals to detect the opportunity for a late rally this month. Meanwhile, Ripple supports Kamala Harris.