Bitcoin Undervalued By 40%: ETFs Signal A Rare Buying Opportunity

While bitcoin stagnates around $94,000, a dissonance is emerging. Institutions, however, seem to shout the opposite: $3 billion injected in one week through Bitcoin ETFs, despite an estimated 40% discount. Such a striking gap raises questions. Why this massive influx when the price seems low? Behind the numbers, a silent battle plays out between apparent discount and strategic conviction.

Bitcoin: the paradox of the discount and the voracious appetite of institutions

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, throws a stone in the pond: bitcoin would intrinsically be worth $130,000. His calculation? A relentless equation based on the energy spent to mine it after the April 2024 halving. Each BTC now costs $77,000 to produce, a technical floor often ignored. Yet, the market remains deaf, fixated on $94,000. An aberration? For insiders, it’s a signal: the real value transcends short-term fluctuations. 

Data from CryptoQuant illuminate a troubling reality: more than 36,000 BTC left Coinbase and Binance at the end of April. These massive outflows, often synonymous with institutional accumulation, echo an adage: “When exchanges empty, private wallets fill.” Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg, confirms: $3 billion fled to Bitcoin ETFs in a few days. A movement evoking less speculation than cold planning.  

But beware of hasty conclusions. In 2021, similar outflows did not prevent a crash after the Chinese ban. Joao Wedson, from Alphractal, tempers: “A one-time outflow guarantees nothing. Only prolonged outflows, as during FTX’s collapse, signal a real reversal.” Institutions are therefore playing a subtle game, navigating between opportunism and caution.

$3 Billion ETF: the fractal that could change everything  

The bitcoin chart whispers a familiar story. Its current consolidation strangely resembles that of Q4 2024.

At the time, a 13% rise in five days preceded a jump to $100,000. Today, the RSI shows similar buying pressure, and prices reproduce the same dance. An enticing fractal, but deceptive? Patterns repeat, never identically. The key resistance at $96,100 could block everything… or release everything.

The $3 billion injected into ETFs is no accident. They reveal a deeper mechanism: simplified access for large holders. Previously, buying bitcoin involved operational risks. Now, ETFs offer a secure gateway. The result: a clean capital influx, detached from exchange contingencies. A silent revolution with heavy consequences for liquidity and price stability.  

For optimists, everything seems to be shaping in their favor. A rise of 7 to 10% in the coming days could propel bitcoin beyond $100,000. However, the market has evolved. In 2024, price discovery happened without much resistance. Today, large whales watch, ready to sell at the slightest sign of weakness, even with the $90,000 support firmly in place. This 40% undervaluation acts like a magnet, attracting investors while sparking fears.