Bitcoin: Technical Signals Suggest A Near Reversal

The sentiment around bitcoin is at its lowest since the beginning of 2023. However, several analysts are identifying encouraging signs of a possible change in dynamics as the queen of crypto shows remarkable resilience in the face of the recent volatility of the US stock markets.

A bearish sentiment that could herald a rebound for Bitcoin

The bitcoin market is currently going through one of its least optimistic phases since January 2023. The bullish score index, a key indicator of investor sentiment, shows its lowest value in two years, according to CryptoQuant data.

Historically, values below 40 for prolonged periods increase the likelihood of a bear market. This index remained above 40 throughout 2024, only dipping below this threshold in February 2025.

Yet, a remarkable phenomenon occurred in recent days. On April 3, while the S&P 500 collapsed by 4.5%, bitcoin closed the day in positive territory, a historic first.

The following day, April 4, US stock indices continued their descent with respective declines of 3.87% for the S&P 500 and 3.44% for the Dow Jones, while bitcoin maintained its stability near equilibrium.

This unusual resilience comes amidst global trade tensions, particularly with threats of new tariffs from the Trump administration, which typically tend to negatively impact risky assets.

Technical signals favorable to a market turnaround

The “Value Days Destroyed” (VDD) indicator for bitcoin, currently at 0.72, signals a pivotal phase for the crypto, according to CryptoQuant.

This technical indicator measures the movements of bitcoins held long-term. When it declines, it indicates that long-term holders are stopping their selling.

In December 2024, the VDD reached 2.27, reflecting a strong profit-taking similar to the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Its drop to 0.65 in April reveals that this phase of massive selling is coming to an end.

Historically, since 2023, these transition periods lead either to price stabilization or to a new phase of accumulation preceding a bullish trend.

The “Fear & Greed” index confirms this analysis with a score of 28 (“fear”) on April 4, after a low of 25 (“extreme fear”) the day before. For contrarian investors, these excessive levels of pessimism often signal buying opportunities.

The behavior of “whales” reinforces this perspective. These major investors have resumed their purchases for the first time since August 2024, a period when bitcoin was trading between $50,000 and $60,000. This return to accumulation could signal an upcoming rebound.